Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Removed the FLash Flood Watch Headline from the appropriate zones.
There could still be isolated flash flooding this evening, but over
very small areas.

CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Higher terrain obscured. Increaasing westerly flow aloft will
continue to push drier air into western and central NM through
01/18Z. Sct showers and tstms will begin to favor central and ern NM
by 03Z with brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys, hail and wind gusts to 50kt
with the stronger storms. IFR cigs/vsbys in br to return to areas
from the east slopes of the central mt chain across the ern plains by
02Z and persisting through 01/13Z when strengthening sw sfc winds
start to erode the low clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...155 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
One more active weather afternoon and night before we get a break
Sunday into Monday. Storms should fire along a dry line Monday
evening on the eastern plains, and more widespread on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A back door cold front will plunge south
Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fresh supply of moisture.
Wednesday through Thursday will be unsettled area wide before a
drying trend Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another busy afternoon underway with showers and thunderstorms firing
across northwest NM. A short wave trough over northern NM will keep
it active through the evening and into the night. Main weather threat
will be flash flooding as many areas are already saturated from rain
over the past week. Isolated severe weather is also possible.

Finally some drying Sunday in the wake of the short wave trough.
There will be much less storm coverage, while temperatures rise 5 to
10 degrees above today, mostly near normal.

Monday will be dry as well during the day, but a dry line may activate
on the far eastern plains Monday evening. This will spread moisture
west, making Tuesday afternoon and evening more active across much of
the east. A back door cold front will plunge south Tuesday night and
west Wednesday, increasing low level moisture over much of the state.
This means another round of widespread rain for Wednesday through
Thursday evening. Another drying trend for Friday and Saturday as a
trough swings through the state.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet conditions continue as showers and storms impact NM once again
today. Soil moisture values have improved even further across most
of northern and central NM, with the exception of some patchy areas
along the Arizona border. The next round of storms firing up near
the Cont Divide will shift east across NM and drop widespread
wetting rainfall again through this evening. More fog, low clouds,
and spotty showers overnight will taper off by sunrise Sunday.

Drier air over Arizona will move east across NM Sunday and trend
humidities 25 to 35% lower than today. Ventilation will improve to
excellent across the western half and good across the east. Temps
will trend nearly 10 degrees warmer with deeper mixing allowing for
some late day breezes. Overnight recoveries Monday morning will
still be very good all areas with wet soils in place.

The next upper level wave will approach the Great Basin Monday and
spread stronger winds over NM. Southwest winds of 25 to 35mph with
gusts as high as 50 mph are possible across western NM and over the
northeastern plains. Ventilation will be excellent all areas with
moderate to high haines and temps slightly above normal. Min RH will
range from 10 to 15% across the west to 20 to 30% across the east.

Low level moisture will begin surging northwest again across the
east Monday evening. Showers and storms are possible once again with
locally heavy rainfall. This moisture will continue advancing to the
northwest Tuesday and especially Wednesday as the upper level wave
deepens over Nevada. This will also help draw mid and upper level
moisture into the state and set the stage for at least scattered
showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall as far west as the
Cont Divide through Friday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into this evening for portions of
central and northern New Mexico.

A few strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon,
mainly between the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley.
Large hail is the primary threat, with potential for significant hail
accumulation on roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few severe storms are possible across the Eastern Plains Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding are possible by
the end of the work week across much of central and western New
Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             SPRINGER                36.37N 104.59W
09/30/2017  M1.25 INCH       COLFAX             NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702210

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             1 ENE RIO RANCHO        35.28N 106.65W
09/30/2017  M1.00 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NORTHERN AND ROCKAWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702211

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
557 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ519-010030-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
557 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BERNALILLO COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
MDT...

At 557 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Isleta Pueblo, or 10 miles north of Los Lunas, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albuquerque, South Valley and North Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 150 and 168.
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 211 and 225.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 10648 3512 10649 3510 10648 3491 10649
      3492 10677 3509 10679 3512 10668 3514 10648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 275DEG 28KT 3496 10673

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             1 SW RIO RANCHO         35.26N 106.68W
09/30/2017  M0.75 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702212

99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
607 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ527-528-530-531-010030-
Far Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-Raton
Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
607 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARDING...WEST
CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

At 607 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Abbott, or 14 miles east of Springer, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abbott, Gladstone and Farley.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 10441 3641 10443 3649 10397 3619 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 264DEG 26KT 3633 10434

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
621 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ527-530-010045-
Union County-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
621 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION AND EAST
CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 621 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Capulin, or 19 miles southwest of Des Moines,
moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Union
and east central Colfax Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 10379 3645 10379 3646 10401 3649 10401
      3646 10405 3647 10408 3646 10409 3647 10423
      3666 10421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 263DEG 20KT 3658 10411

40