Severe Thunderstorm Warning 399, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will deepen over the western United States
through mid week steering drier air over New Mexico from the west.
Western areas will dry out Tuesday, but the east will wait until
Wednesday. A back door cold front will enter the northeast Wednesday
night and possibly also Thursday night, improving moisture and
thunderstorm chances across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast
plains and the far eastern plains on Thursday and Friday.
Moisture is expected to increase this weekend with a better chance of
thunderstorms areawide. Temperatures for the remainder of the week
will generally vary within 4 degrees either side of normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The atmosphere will dry out significantly over NM during the mid week
period with some of the lowest dewpoint temperatures observed since
early July. Locations west of the central mountain chain will be the
driest, where precipitation will be unlikely until this weekend. The
east will benefit from one or two moist back door cold fronts during
the latter half of the work week as mentioned above. Before the
moisture exits the east on Wednesday, shear and instability will
support the development of some strong to severe thunderstorms this
evening and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A mid-level high pressure system will develop over TX/OK/eastern NM
by this weekend steering a modest but more traditional monsoon flow
over the state with increase thunderstorm chances.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air is already nosing into western NM as evidenced by 3pm
dewpoints in the mid 30s at Grants. Scouring of low level moisture
is taking place over the remainder of central and western NM where
isolated dry/wet type storms are moving quickly eastward. The east
remains very moist and a few storms have already become strong to
severe with locally heavy rainfall. Showers will continue through
much of tonight from the Rio Grande Valley eastward while the dry
air advances from the west. Tuesday will trend even drier along and
west of the central mt chain where min humidity values fall into the
10-20% range. West winds will even become a tad breezy by late day
along and west of the Cont Divide. A few more storms are expected
over the far eastern plains as dryline type forcing arrives from
the west.

Wednesday through Friday will be the driest days since about the
Fourth of July for central and western NM. High temps will trend a
few degrees warmer but low temps will trend cooler with stronger
radiational cooling. High haines values are even projected with deep
mixing and excellent ventilation. Low level moisture will still
slosh around eastern NM however the presence of dry mid and upper
level air will limit the coverage of storms with heavy rainfall.

Saturday will be a transition day as upper level high pressure
reorganizes over west TX and an upper trough takes shape along the
California coastline. This will open up the moisture tap to an
approaching easterly wave over Mexico. A potentially significant
uptick in shower and storm coverage is possible Sunday and Monday.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Clouds building slowly near the high terrain will develop into ISOLD
storms thru early this evening for central and western NM. Drier air
mixing into the area will increase potential for erratic and gusty
outflow winds. Farther east where deeper moisture and instability is
in place, ISOLD storms will fire up on the east slopes then move
east and merge into a larger linear segment between KCAO, KTCC, and
KCVS aft 23Z. Some of these storms may become strong to severe w/
damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall thru 03Z. As has been
the case the past two nights, -SHRA may linger around the Rio Grande
Valley and parts of eastern NM overnight before clearing by sunrise.
Tuesday will be much drier for central and western NM w/ the precip
focus over far eastern NM.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  85  55  87 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  49  79  46  80 /  20   5   0   0
Cuba............................  55  80  53  81 /  20   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  54  82  50  83 /  10   0   5   0
El Morro........................  50  78  46  79 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  54  83  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  54  79  52  80 /  30   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  61  86  60  86 /  30   5   0   0
Chama...........................  47  75  45  75 /  20  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  80  55  80 /  20  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  56  80  53  81 /  20  10   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  51  75  46  75 /  20  20   5   0
Red River.......................  43  67  40  67 /  30  30   5   5
Angel Fire......................  42  72  39  73 /  20  30  10   5
Taos............................  52  80  45  80 /  20  10   5   0
Mora............................  53  77  50  78 /  30  30  10   0
Espanola........................  61  85  58  87 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  58  80  55  81 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  58  84  56  85 /  20  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  89  61  89 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  89  63  89 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  90  63  91 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  90  62  90 /  20   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  63  93  62  92 /  20   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  89  61  90 /  20   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  66  89  64  90 /  20  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  84  55  84 /  20  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  60  85  58  85 /  20  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  83  53  84 /  20  10   5   0
Clines Corners..................  57  81  55  83 /  20  20   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  59  84  58  84 /  20  20   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  62  86  61  86 /  20  20  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  57  78  56  80 /  20  40  10   0
Capulin.........................  54  81  52  78 /  30  30  20  10
Raton...........................  54  84  52  83 /  30  30  10  10
Springer........................  56  84  54  84 /  20  40  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  54  81  52  81 /  20  30  10   0
Clayton.........................  60  87  59  84 /  30  30  20  10
Roy.............................  58  84  56  83 /  30  40  20   5
Conchas.........................  64  92  62  91 /  20  30  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  62  91 /  20  30  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  94  64  94 /  30  40  30   0
Clovis..........................  65  89  64  90 /  30  30  20   5
Portales........................  66  89  65  90 /  30  40  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  66  90  65  91 /  20  30  20   0
Roswell.........................  68  94  67  96 /  20  30  20   0
Picacho.........................  63  86  62  88 /  20  40  10   0
Elk.............................  61  81  59  83 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
440 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

NMZ501>540-151100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
440 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms are possible across the Northeast
Plains late this afternoon and evening, with large hail being the
primary severe threat. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may
produced localized flash flooding over already saturated grounds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A few strong to severe storms are possible across the Eastern Plains
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds
being the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
400 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             14 NW SEDAN             36.27N 103.32W
08/13/2017  E1.75 INCH       UNION              NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702165

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
453 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             MOUNT DORA              36.52N 103.49W
08/14/2017  E0.88 INCH       UNION              NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL DIAMETER HAIL PILED UP ON HIGHWAY 64 87 CAUSING
            TRAFFIC TO STOP

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702166

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
458 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             GRENVILLE               36.59N 103.61W
08/14/2017  E0.88 INCH       UNION              NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702167

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
459 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             14 NE GLADSTONE         36.45N 103.81W
08/14/2017  M0.88 INCH       UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702168

CML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
508 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

NMZ532-533-142345-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
508 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Variadero, or 26 miles northeast of Santa Rosa, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central San
Miguel and northeastern Guadalupe Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 10457 3537 10439 3524 10419 3507 10443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 325DEG 6KT 3527 10444

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

NMZ505-508-150000-
Southwest Mountains-West Central Plateau-
531 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

At 531 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salt Lake, or 37 miles northeast of Springerville, moving east at 25
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Salt Lake and Quemado.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 10850 3458 10848 3457 10848 3457 10846
      3431 10838 3423 10883 3443 10889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 250DEG 20KT 3438 10871

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