Severe Thunderstorm Warning 379, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1155 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Clouds building over the higher terrain of central and western NM
will move southeast and develop into scattered -SHRA/TSRA thru the
afternoon. Storms will produce strong outflow winds, heavy rainfall,
and perhaps a brief cig/vsby restriction under the heaviest cores.
Precip will focus over eastern NM aft 00Z as a northeasterly wind
shift across the plains. SHRA/TSRA will likely continue well into
the evening hours, followed by another round of low cigs from KLVS
to KTCC aft 06Z.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will favor central areas of the state
today. Very dry air aloft will make it tough for storms to develop
across northern New Mexico this afternoon. The one exception will be
across the northeast highlands and northeast plains where enough low
level moisture will remain for isolated strong to perhaps severe
afternoon and evening storms. Dry west winds will make it difficult
for showers and storms over the northwest quarter of the state
Monday. Isolated activity is expected elsewhere. Dry west winds will
continue Tuesday through Thursday, keeping storm chances mainly
across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated elevated convection continuing over northeast NM early this
morning as a 60kt wind speed maxima remains over southern CO and far
northern NM. This same speed max will shift south somewhat and
result in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across far northeast
and east- central NM this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere on the
southern end of the wly wind max, scattered showers and storms will
develop this afternoon and move east at a good clip (~30kt). NAM12
continues to bring single digit RH values at 500mb over northwest and
north- central NM this afternoon, making it pretty tough for any
developing saturated updrafts to survive. Lowered shower/thunderstorm
chances across the northern mountains as a result of this very dry
air aloft.

Dry west winds at all levels associated with a broad upper level
trough moving ewd through the intermountain west take their toll
Monday and especially beyond. West winds start to scour out low level
moisture from the northwest quarter of the state Monday and across
the western two thirds Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be hard to come by west of the central
mountain chain Tuesday through Friday. A backdoor front is forecast
to drop into eastern NM Friday as the above mentioned broad trough
slides east, likely leading to more widespread convection across
eastern NM and potentially sending low level moisture west of the
central mountain chain Friday night. Meanwhile, the subtropical/Four
Corners high begins rebuilding over southern NM Friday. ECMWF and to
a lesser extent the GFS send the upper high ewd over TX next
weekend. Both models bring an ely wave up from the southwest on day
9.

High temperatures are forecast to be near average for mid August
while low temperatures will likely be below average with the dry air
moving in this week. Low temperatures flirting with the freezing
mark are possible in the Moreno Valley (Eagle Nest and Angel Fire)
Tuesday through Thursday mornings.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Once again, high dewpoints amidst the moist atmosphere and recent
wetting storms have yielded excellent humidity recovery early this
morning. A few showers are struggling to sustain themselves at this
hour, mainly in northeast NM, and areas of low clouds and fog have
also developed in the high humidity environment within east central
to northeastern parts of the state. A disturbance aloft in UT is
currently shifting east into CO, and this is expected to ignite
storms, some of which may clip the far northeast corner of NM later
today. Slightly drier air will hang back in north central to
northwestern NM, but still most other zones are expected to observe
scattered, if not numerous, showers and thunderstorms by late in the
day. Any storms that develop in the eastern plains will have the
potential to quickly turn strong to severe with large hail, gusty
downburst winds, and heavy downpours. Temperatures will warm a few
degrees in most areas this afternoon, bringing readings close to
seasonal averages. This afternoon minimum relative humidity will be
lowest, close to 20 percent, in the Four Corners region, but
elsewhere readings should stay within a 30 to 50 percent range.

High pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will re-situate
itself over the Gulf Coast by Monday, staying more-or-less anchored
for much of the rest of the week. Also on Monday, an upper level
trough will move inland over the Great Basin in NV. Some drier air
aloft will precede this upper feature, filtering into the
northwestern and west central NM Monday. As the trough ejects a
short wave toward the Rockies, it will send more drier air into
western and central NM into Tuesday. Storm potential will
consequently be reduced some in the far west on Monday, but more-so
across central and western NM on Tuesday. In addition, moderate
westerly breezes will return while dewpoints lower into the 30's and
minimum RH falls back to the 15 to 25 percent range for many zones.
Haines indices will also climb to 4 and 5 in much of the
northwestern half of NM by Tuesday afternoon.

As the aforementioned short wave trough overtakes the Rockies and
moves into the Great Plains during the middle of the week, the drier
air will be transported farther east, reducing storm chances more.
For the remainder of the week, temperatures will stay within a few
degrees of normal for mid August. A couple of weak back door fronts
are advertised to flirt with the northeast quadrant of the state,
one on Wednesday and another Thursday night into Friday. Any
moisture rebounds from these fronts will be confined to fairly small
spatial areas of northeastern NM, but could help with regenerating
storms.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

NMZ501>540-141130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
356 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across far northeast
and east-central New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Storms will
be capable of producing large hail, strong downburst winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Thunderstorms will favor areas near and south of Interstate 40 Monday
afternoon and evening. Drier air from the west will keep thunderstorms
confined mainly to the eastern plains Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening for
far northeast and east-central NM for severe storms.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
100 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NMZ539-540-131930-
Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
100 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND WEST CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

At 1259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Elk, or 24 miles southeast of Ruidoso, moving south at
10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elk.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10535 3296 10531 3319 10532 3320 10526
      3298 10513 3293 10535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 344DEG 8KT 3311 10535

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
224 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NMZ530-132100-
Union County-
224 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...

At 224 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles west of Kenton, or 34 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Union
County.

&&

LAT...LON 3684 10303 3686 10334 3700 10335 3700 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 265DEG 10KT 3697 10327

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