Severe Thunderstorm Warning 377, NWS Albuquerque, NM

740 
WWUS55 KABQ 130144
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
744 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NMC047-130200-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0377.000000T0000Z-170813T0200Z/
San Miguel-
744 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 743 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles southeast
of Romeroville, or 15 miles southeast of Las Vegas, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
San Agustin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flow in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 10520 3562 10508 3538 10478 3526 10508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 325DEG 17KT 3545 10502 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
519 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
West to northwest flow alf with weak sfc low/trof over the ern
plains. Sct showers and tstms will continue to develop aft 00Z and
move to the se. Brief mt obscurations in MVFR cigs/vsbys, gusty
winds and small hail are possible with this activity. Lcl MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys in br to develop along the east slopes of the central mt
chain and over the ern plains aft 06Z and perist thru 13/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will return each
afternoon and evening through Monday with Sunday featuring an uptick
in thunderstorm coverage compared to today. Some storms across the
northeast may turn severe Sunday afternoon and evening. Much drier
air will spread over the state from the west Tuesday through Thursday
causing storms to become more isolated. A back door cold front should
produce an uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the east Friday
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the wake of yesterday's disturbance, much drier air aloft moved
over central and western parts of the forecast area. This has limited
convection a fair amount today, but low levels are moist enough that
showers and storms should be able to increase in coverage to
scattered across southern and eastern areas by this evening.

A disturbance crossing CO and northern NM will cause scattered
showers and storms to cover more of the forecast area on Sunday
afternoon and evening. Storms will probably become numerous by late
in the day across SW and NE areas, especially as a back door cold
front arrives in the NE. The front doesn't look to have a lot of
moisture with it, and drier air will begin to filter in from the
west again on Monday, so it should be a little less convectively
active than Sunday.

Tuesday through Thursday, an upper level trough deepening on the
west coast funnels much drier air over NM. After temperatures near
and below normal Sunday and Monday, highs should climb closer to
normal by Wednesday and Thursday. A back door cold front will sag
into the northeast Wednesday night and Thursday with a chance of
showers and storms there.

Another back door cool front will dive further into the plains
Thursday night, increasing low level moisture enough to spread a
chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of the plains on
Friday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist low level airmass today will work against a deep mid and
upper level dry airmass in place over Arizona and western New
Mexico. Recycling of low level moisture will still allow for showers
and storms to develop around the higher terrain and move east to
southeast thru eastern NM overnight. Excellent humidity recoveries
are likely again tonight in most areas along with some patchy fog
and low ceilings across the eastern plains.

A weak upper level disturbance drifting north from Mexico will set
the stage for a much more active day Sunday with deeper moisture and
forcing in place across NM. Locally heavy rainfall is expected along
and east of the Cont Divide, with possible flash flooding near steep
terrain and areas of eastern NM that are saturated. More widespread
excellent recoveries on tap for Sunday night, then a drying trend
develops from west to east Monday.

A dry, upper level trough will approach the Four Corners region on
Monday then become stationary over the central Rockies through at
least Wednesday. A deep-layer dry intrusion within the base of this
trough will aid mixing of significantly drier air to the surface
along and west of the central mt chain. Min humidity values will
fall into the teens Tuesday through Thursday afternoons, with at
least good recoveries expected each night. Any storms will likely
focus over the southeastern half of NM during this period. Vent
rates will improve to excellent all areas, with even some breezy
conditions possible by late afternoon over western NM. High temps
will trend warmer with readings closer to normal for mid August.

Extended model guidance is hinting that a return to more typical
August weather is possible by Friday as an upper high redevelops
over TX. Meanwhile, a large easterly wave with abundant moisture is
shown to surge north into New Mexico and/or Arizona from northern
Mexico. This will increase the chances once again for showers and
storms with locally heavy rainfall, trend temps below normal, and
deteriorate ventilation all areas.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

NMZ501>540-131100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
250 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Significant moisture will produce a large coverage of storms over NM
today. This pattern will enhance the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall and the risk for flash flooding, especially for areas that
have already seen heavy rainfall within the last 24 hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Significant moisture will produce a large coverage of storms over NM
Sunday and Monday. This pattern will enhance the possibility for
locally heavy rainfall and the risk for flash flooding.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather over the eastern plains
Sunday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing
large hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
617 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NMZ515-528-529-130045-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de
Cristo Mountains-
617 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MORA COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 616 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sapello, or 11 miles north of Las Vegas, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watrous, Storrie Lake State Park, Sapello and Manuelitas.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 349 and 366.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 10537 3588 10527 3575 10484 3551 10499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 296DEG 23KT 3577 10524

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
644 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NMZ501-505-506-130115-
Northwest Plateau-West Central Mountains-West Central Plateau-
644 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 644 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brimhall Nizhoni, or 20 miles north of Gallup, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Standing Rock, Brimhall Nizhoni and Coyote Canyon.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 10869 3593 10828 3566 10827 3570 10868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 268DEG 20KT 3579 10860

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
703 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NMZ529-130130-
Northeast Highlands-
703 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

At 703 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Las Vegas, moving south at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Las Vegas, Storrie Lake State Park and Romeroville.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 340 and 350.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 10525 3569 10504 3550 10495 3545 10526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 349DEG 13KT 3561 10513

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