Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Albuquerque, NM

457 
WWUS55 KABQ 270238
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
838 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

NMC059-270300-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-170627T0300Z/
Union-
838 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTY...

At 838 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Grenville, or
19 miles southeast of Des Moines, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Union County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 10344 3664 10335 3652 10347 3657 10352
      3668 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 044DEG 8KT 3664 10351 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Round of showers and storms will persist into the evening hours
across central New Mexico and potentially impact KAEG, KABQ and
KSAF. Winds are hard to nail-down with thunderstorm outflow
boundaries converging in the vicinity of KABQ/KAEG, but winds should
switch to an e-se direction between 02-03Z. Short-lived MVFR impacts
are likely with these storms. Latest short term model runs continue
to show storms impacting KTCC and KROW later this evening, so address
this with tempo groups with MVFR conditions in storms. Dry air will
begin to filter in from the west Tuesday, which should limit coverage
of storms to eastern New Mexico and also limit coverage somewhat.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF
period.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms which developed over the
higher terrain early this afternoon will drift into the valleys and
plains by this evening. A few of the storms may be strong to severe
with large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. The
activity should taper off by midnight. A pattern change is expected
Tuesday through Thursday as drier westerly winds push into the state
and shut down thunderstorm activity by Wednesday. Afternoon breezes
will return Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near to
somewhat above average. A backdoor front will bring cooler
temperatures along with chances for thunderstorms mainly to eastern
New Mexico Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another round of storms developed over the higher terrain and was
drifting ever so slowly mainly to the south, more or less. A few
cells were strong and briefly severe so far, but definitely less
active than on Sunday. Short term models indicate the activity will
most impact the east slopes/highlands of the central mt chain later
this afternoon and evening before mostly ending by midnight.

Abruptly drier weather is expected Tuesday as drier westerly winds
make inroads into the west and central. Wednesday and Thursday will
be dry with some westerly afternoon breezes. A few century mark
highs may return to the east central/southeast plains but
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal.

Another cool front will dip into the northeast Thursday night/Friday
with another surge Friday night. Moisture looks to waffle back and
forth over the east through the weekend and early next week, leading
to potential for thunderstorms. The west looks to stay mostly dry
with the GFS/ECMWF suggesting a trend towards a monsoon pattern
developing later next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms should hug the high
terrain this afternoon and evening, because their steering flow will
be more southerly than yesterday.

Drier air will filter into the area tonight, and especially Tuesday
and Wednesday, as the low level flow gradually veers out of the west
in response to a series of upper level troughs crossing the northern
and central Rockies.  There will be a significant downtick in
thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday, when mainly isolated storms will
favor the southwest mountains, central mountain chain and adjacent
east slopes. Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday. The
troughs passing north of NM will strengthen the flow aloft and work
with a stout surface trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Range
to make surface winds breezy across the east, north and west
Tuesday, Wednesday, and to a lesser extent Thursday. Humidities will
bottom out in the single digits across much of the west Tuesday,
then across most of the fire weather forecast area on Wednesday and
Thursday. Poor humidity recoveries are also expected. Some locally
critical fire weather conditions are forecast west of the
continental divide on Tuesday, and east of the central mountains
Wednesday. Haines indices will reflect the drier conditions with
widespread 6's across central and western areas Tuesday, then
areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

The dry conditions will persist until a moist back door cold front
brings some humidity improvement along and east of the central
mountain chain Friday.  There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in and east of the Sangre de Cristos Friday and
Saturday. However, very low humidities and Haines of 6 will persist
farther west as a slow moving upper level trough digs into the Great
Basin.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
357 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

NMZ501>540-271130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
357 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible again today, generally from
the central mountain chain eastward. Heavy downpours, damaging
downburst winds, and hail will again be the primary threats. Storm
motions will generally be toward the southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Thunderstorm coverage will trend downward on Tuesday with
significantly drier conditions for mid-week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However...weather can
change very rapidly. Always use the latest forecasts...watches and
warning for planning purposes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, damaging winds and flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
720 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

NMZ533-270145-
Guadalupe County-
720 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 720 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pastura, or 14 miles northeast of Vaughn, moving east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pastura.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 10512 3479 10518 3490 10493 3464 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 252DEG 7KT 3474 10501

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
745 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

NMZ525-526-270230-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
745 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOCORRO COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 745 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Carrizozo, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrizozo and White Oaks.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 10609 3386 10592 3368 10561 3352 10601
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 322DEG 14KT 3375 10595

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
749 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             2 ESE ALTO              33.39N 105.65W
06/26/2017  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702061

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
750 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

NMZ530-270230-
Union County-
750 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM MDT...

At 749 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
across northern Union County between Seneca and Des Moines, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 10302 3660 10365 3700 10374 3700 10339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 065DEG 5KT 3685 10356

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
754 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             2 E GLORIETA            35.59N 105.73W
06/26/2017  M2.50 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702062

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
755 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             2 E GLORIETA            35.59N 105.73W
06/26/2017  M2.50 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   COCORAHS

            MAJOR HAIL DAMAGE REPORTED AT SEVERAL HOMES.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702062

TRM