Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
255 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY,
with frontal boundary extending south across eastern WY and the
lee of the CO Rockies. Upper level analysis shows high pressure
centered over eastern UT, with ridge extending north across the
Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
crossing southeast MT and eastern WY, moving southeast through our
area late this afternoon and evening. Instability is rather strong
to the east of the boundary, with cape values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg
currently from far northeast WY to southwest SD. A few storms
developed over the Black Hills around midday, but struggled to
move off the hills with strong cap in place. Cap is eroding now
across the plains and more robust storms are developing across
northeast WY ahead of the shortwave. Temps are in the 80s to
around 90 degrees with southeasterly winds at most locations,
especially to the east of the boundary.

Active weather is expected across a good portion of the cwa over the
next few hours, especially from northeast WY through southwest SD.
Strong to severe storms can be expected with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot totally be
ruled out, but the threat looks to be rather low with low level
shear on the weaker side. The stronger storms should shift toward
southern portions of northeast WY and southwest SD by early evening,
with most of the stronger activity moving south-southeast out of the
cwa by mid evening. Isolated showers and storms will likely linger
across the area overnight, especially across southern SD. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will see more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as another shortwave
rotates across the area. At this point, the threat for severe storms
looks to shift a bit further south, but will still cover most of the
Black Hills area and much of the southwest SD plains. Hail and wind
will be the main threats again. Temps will be a bit cooler, with
highs mostly in the 80s across the plains, 70s in the Black Hills.
Activity should become more isolated again overnight, with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Progressive westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will
continue through the extended period with relatively moist
southeasterly upslope flow at the lower levels. As a series of
disturbances push through the area, the persistent flow of low/mid
level moisture will aid in the development of diurnal convection
nearly every day. Most days the coverage will be limited, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear aloft
will support the threat of severe storms; however, the lack of
strong upper level forcing will keep the coverage of severe storms
limited. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average,
with highs mainly in the 80s through the weekend leading into a
more significant warm-up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon and early evening,
with large hail and damaging wind gusts. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period except for local MVFR conditions near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
400 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

SDZ002-014-032-046-049-291000-
PERKINS-ZIEBACH-HAAKON-MELLETTE-TRIPP-
400 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016 /500 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ001-012-013-024>031-041>044-047-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-291000-
HARDING-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-
PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-JACKSON-BENNETT-
TODD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
400 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016 /500 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
323 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             8 WSW HILL CITY         43.90N 103.72W
06/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCKEMY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
324 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             8 S UPTON               43.99N 104.63W
06/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       WESTON             WY   PUBLIC

&&

KCLARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
328 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

SDZ073-282200-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS SD-
328 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEADE COUNTY...

AT 327 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELM SPRINGS...OR 30 MILES EAST OF RAPID CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEADE
COUNTY...NORTHEAST OF NEW UNDERWOOD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4421 10292 4435 10282 4429 10237 4427 10237
      4414 10257 4414 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 287DEG 16KT 4423 10268

JC