Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
542 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low straddling the
Montana/Canadian border with southwest flow continuing across the
nrn Plains. A series of weak waves are extending southwest into
WY/Great Basin. Surface analysis...and even KUDX radar...shows low
pressure centered across the Badlands along a stationary frontal
boundary. Temps have risen into the upper 90s across cntrl SD and
80s behind the front across ne WY/wrn SD. Models continue to show
strong instability across wrn SD and into the BH/ne WY with MLCape
reaching 2500-3500 J/kg. Radar shows convection initiating across ne
WY into the BH...and toward Fall River county...but are remaining
weak thus far. Storms will continue to develop across the area over
the next few hours...however the focus for convection this afternoon
and evening will be along the frontal boundary as it shifts eastward
into cntrl SD. With strong instability in place...some storms could
become severe before the line slides east of the CWA border late in
the evening...with large hail and strong winds as the main threats.
Cooler air will filter into the rest of the CWA tonight into Thu
morning. The upper low will slide eastward across srn Canada just
north of ND Thu morning. As the base of the trough approaches the
CWA...models are showing a series of stronger waves pushing through
which could bring elevated convection to the area...especially in
the Black Hills area late tonight into Thu morning...then continuing
through the afternoon/evening hours. At this time severe weather is
not a concern...though a few strong storms are possible closer to
SCntrl SD. Cooler temps are expected with highs in the upper 70s to
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2016

A slow-moving upper trough will continue to bring chances of
thunderstorms through Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler than average, in the 80s. Upper ridge building over the
western CONUS will then shift eastward over the forecast area
Sunday into Monday allowing for hotter and drier weather. There
will be small chances of precip towards midweek as the upper ridge
breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 540 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Isolated to scattered storms will continue this evening from the
Black Hills into central South Dakota. IFR visibilities near
stronger storms, otherwise VFR conditions expected.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ046-047-049.

WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
650 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-041-042-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-111300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
650 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND
THE BLACK HILLS OF WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-111300-
ZIEBACH-HAAKON-JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-
650 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016 /750 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
445 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

SDZ012-072-073-102330-
BUTTE SD-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS SD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS SD-
445 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MEADE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 444 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BEAR BUTTE STATE PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF STURGIS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VALE AND BEAR BUTTE STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 4461 10296 4460 10297 4442 10346 4447 10357
      4472 10333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 229DEG 19KT 4454 10338

POJORLIE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
453 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

SDZ026-028-102345-
RAPID CITY SD-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS SD-
453 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PENNINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 453 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SHERIDAN LAKE...OR NEAR HILL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN RAPID CITY...HILL CITY...JOHNSON SIDING...HISEGA...
ROCKERVILLE...KEYSTONE WYE...BEAR COUNTRY...PACTOLA RESERVOIR...
HORSETHIEF LAKE...REPTILE GARDENS...SHERIDAN LAKE AND MOUNT RUSHMORE
KOA.

LAT...LON 4388 10351 4397 10363 4414 10341 4398 10319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 13KT 4400 10349

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             1 NE KEYSTONE           43.90N 103.42W
08/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCKEMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
647 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

SDZ001-110130-
HARDING SD-
647 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDING COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

AT 647 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES WEST OF SLIM BUTTES...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN SLIM BUTTES.

LAT...LON 4531 10333 4538 10356 4573 10341 4562 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 204DEG 23KT 4542 10340

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
650 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             14 ESE LONG VALLEY      43.41N 101.23W
08/10/2016  E0.70 INCH       JACKSON            SD   PUBLIC

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 ESE LONG VALLEY      43.41N 101.23W
08/10/2016  E50 MPH          JACKSON            SD   PUBLIC

&&

MCKEMY

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