Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
331 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north
central WY, with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along
the lee of the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis
shows ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow
across the Northern Plains. Weak shortwave energy is rotating around
the ridge from southeast MT into the western Dakotas. Bulk of
thunderstorm development has ended up being further north across the
area, mainly from southwest ND moving through northwest SD now.
Isolated short-lived supercells have developed over northwest SD,
producing strong wind gusts and some hail. This activity should
continue through the next few hours as it moves southeast into west-
central and central SD. Uncertainty exists further south and west as
far as severe potential, but isolated stronger storms are still
possible into the early evening across much of the cwa. Activity
will taper off again and end or become rather isolated overnight.
Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s.

Slightly cooler air will settle into at least northern portions of
the cwa on Thursday as a weak front to the north slides south into
the area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s over northwest
SD and the Black Hills to the mid 80s over far southwest SD.
Thunderstorm chances during the day and into Thursday night will
mostly be confined to northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest
SD, along and ahead of the front. With better instability getting
pushed south of the area, the risk for strong to severe storms will
be rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Upper ridging over northern Plains Friday will give way to zonal
flow through the weekend, then another upper trof digs over the
Pacific NW. Shortwave trof passes to the south of the area Sat &
Sun, with some storms mainly over southern SD. Although flow
transitions to SW early next week, will see isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Strong surface high pushes into eastern Dakotas and
MN with cool SE return flow over the forecast area Friday, so have
trimmed back high temps. Lee trof deepens over eastern MT-Wy by
Sat, with better surface convergence over western SD. Thermal
ridge builds, with temperatures warming into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Sct tstms have moved into nwrn SD with hail and strong straight
line wind gusts. Additional shwrs and tstms wl dvlp ovr nern WY
and the Blk Hls late this aftn, a few possibly strong to severe
w/ hail, strong straight line wnds and localized MVFR cigs in
vcnty of storms. Storms wl mov sewd into swrn SD. Cold front ovr
srn Canada wl push swd acrs Dakotas overnight, with wnds bcmg ne
early Thurs mrng.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
418 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

SDZ001-002-012>014-032-043-046-047-049-WYZ054-056-071-301030-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-HAAKON-
JACKSON-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
418 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016 /518 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ024>031-041-042-044-072>074-WYZ055-057-058-301030-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-
BENNETT-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
418 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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