Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 11, 2016Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Oct 11, 2016, 11:51 PM CDT for Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 11, 2016, 11:51 PM CDT (04:51 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2016, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -671 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2002 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 173 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 282 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

744 
WWUS84 KTSA 120451
SPSTSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016
 
OKZ054-059-120530-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1151 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1150 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF MARLAND TO 8 MILES WEST OF RALSTON.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAIRFAX...                        RALSTON...
BLACKBURN...                      SKEDEE...

LAT...LON 3670 9650 3633 9654 3639 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3652 9701 3653 9698 3653 9696
      3655 9692 3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704 3667 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 278DEG 27KT 3657 9720 3653 9688 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 11, 8:35 PM CDT, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 8:35 PM CDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
835 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers/thunderstorms have developed across northwest
OK...east of the dryline and south of the approacing cold
front in a ribbon of higher dewpoint air. Recent runs of the
HRRR eventually shift this activity east toward northeast OK
later this evening...with some increase in coverage overnight
as the cold front nears.

Overnight forecast is in reasonable shape...although introduced
some low PoPs the remainder of the evening for the far northwest
portions of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  70  45  66 /  30  40  10  20
FSM   65  82  57  68 /  10  20  20  20
MLC   68  79  51  67 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   63  68  41  63 /  50  40  10  20
FYV   63  76  47  66 /  10  60  40  20
BYV   64  76  46  63 /  10  60  40  10
MKO   66  75  49  68 /  10  40  10  20
MIO   66  71  44  65 /  40  60  10  10
F10   67  75  48  68 /  10  40  10  30
HHW   66  83  57  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 11:24 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM OKMULGEE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...POST
FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 10:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-120415-
OSAGE OK-
1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1115 PM CDT...

AT 1039 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       SHIDLER...
BURBANK...                        OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...
PEARSONIA...                      OKESA...
BIGHEART...                       WEBB CITY...
TALLANT...                        PERSHING...
NELAGONEY...

LAT...LON 3659 9601 3656 9667 3679 9676 3683 9675
      3689 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 261DEG 34KT 3667 9658

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 10:51 PM CDT, 1 hour before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-059-120415-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1051 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HALLETT...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...                      WESTPORT...
OSAGE...                          HALLETT...
WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3621 9666 3635 9667 3639 9618 3617 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 269DEG 33KT 3628 9657

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 11:13 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-059-060-120445-
TULSA OK-PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1113 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1113 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WESTPORT...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          BROKEN ARROW...
SAND SPRINGS...                   OWASSO...
CATOOSA...                        MANNFORD...
SPERRY...                         WESTPORT...
KEYSTONE STATE PARK...            TURLEY...
WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...        GRAY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 218 AND 232.

LAT...LON 3629 9638 3633 9581 3616 9581 3616 9579
      3604 9577 3613 9630 3616 9630 3617 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 277DEG 31KT 3621 9630

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 11:35 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-055-120500-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1135 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
ELGIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
COPAN...                          ELGIN...
HULAH...                          WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3694 9579 3694 9581 3692 9581
      3684 9631 3700 9638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 253DEG 35KT 3695 9626

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 11:43 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ060-061-067-120515-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
CDT...

AT 1142 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
SAND SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          BROKEN ARROW...
SAND SPRINGS...                   COWETA...
CATOOSA...                        VERDIGRIS...
ONETA...                          GRAY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 217 AND 243.

LAT...LON 3616 9611 3616 9600 3622 9600 3624 9562
      3597 9572 3607 9601 3607 9606 3610 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 280DEG 35KT 3614 9602

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 11:51 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-059-120530-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1151 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1150 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF MARLAND TO 8 MILES WEST OF RALSTON.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAIRFAX...                        RALSTON...
BLACKBURN...                      SKEDEE...

LAT...LON 3670 9650 3633 9654 3639 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3652 9701 3653 9698 3653 9696
      3655 9692 3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704 3667 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 278DEG 27KT 3657 9720 3653 9688

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 11, 10:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	36 min
Oct 11, 10:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	24 min
Oct 11, 11:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	32 min
Oct 11, 11:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	25 min
Oct 11, 11:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	32 min
Oct 12, 12:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	46 min
Oct 12, 12:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	40 min
Oct 12, 1:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	42 min
Oct 12, 2:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	37 min
Oct 12, 2:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	31 min
Oct 12, 3:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	29 min
Oct 12, 3:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	30 min
Oct 12, 3:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Washington	41 min
Oct 12, 3:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	42 min
Oct 12, 6:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	31 min
Oct 12, 7:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	34 min
Oct 12, 8:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	52 min
Oct 12, 8:37 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Ottawa	113 min
Oct 12, 12:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	24 min
Oct 12, 12:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	37 min
Oct 12, 1:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata	30 min
Oct 12, 2:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	37 min
Oct 12, 2:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	30 min
Oct 12, 2:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	36 min
Oct 12, 3:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	34 min
Oct 12, 4:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	17 min
Oct 12, 4:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	45 min
Oct 12, 5:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	26 min
Oct 12, 5:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	30 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.