Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
835 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers/thunderstorms have developed across northwest
OK...east of the dryline and south of the approacing cold
front in a ribbon of higher dewpoint air. Recent runs of the
HRRR eventually shift this activity east toward northeast OK
later this evening...with some increase in coverage overnight
as the cold front nears.

Overnight forecast is in reasonable shape...although introduced
some low PoPs the remainder of the evening for the far northwest
portions of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  70  45  66 /  30  40  10  20
FSM   65  82  57  68 /  10  20  20  20
MLC   68  79  51  67 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   63  68  41  63 /  50  40  10  20
FYV   63  76  47  66 /  10  60  40  20
BYV   64  76  46  63 /  10  60  40  10
MKO   66  75  49  68 /  10  40  10  20
MIO   66  71  44  65 /  40  60  10  10
F10   67  75  48  68 /  10  40  10  30
HHW   66  83  57  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-120945-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...POST
FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-120415-
OSAGE OK-
1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1115 PM CDT...

AT 1039 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       SHIDLER...
BURBANK...                        OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...
PEARSONIA...                      OKESA...
BIGHEART...                       WEBB CITY...
TALLANT...                        PERSHING...
NELAGONEY...

LAT...LON 3659 9601 3656 9667 3679 9676 3683 9675
      3689 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 261DEG 34KT 3667 9658

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-059-120415-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1051 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HALLETT...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...                      WESTPORT...
OSAGE...                          HALLETT...
WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3621 9666 3635 9667 3639 9618 3617 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 269DEG 33KT 3628 9657

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OKZ054-059-060-120445-
TULSA OK-PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1113 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1113 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WESTPORT...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          BROKEN ARROW...
SAND SPRINGS...                   OWASSO...
CATOOSA...                        MANNFORD...
SPERRY...                         WESTPORT...
KEYSTONE STATE PARK...            TURLEY...
WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...        GRAY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 218 AND 232.

LAT...LON 3629 9638 3633 9581 3616 9581 3616 9579
      3604 9577 3613 9630 3616 9630 3617 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 277DEG 31KT 3621 9630