Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail until early evening. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will begin affecting the
northeast Oklahoma TAF sites early this evening, with lesser
impacts later tonight at the southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas sites. A cold front will move across the area overnight,
with MVFR ceilings in its wake. Ceilings will improve to VFR at
the northeast Oklahoma terminals Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1152 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have just about exited the forecast area
at this time. Outflow boundary has stalled and will likely move
slowly north and weaken as the afternoon wears on. It is not out
of the question that an isolated shower or storm could form near
this retreating boundary late this afternoon, but the better storm
chances will be in the far northwest corner of our forecast area
towards sunset. Have made a few minor first period changes, with
the rest of the forecast looking good at this time.

Update on the way.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
111 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
111 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY...DURING THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT
OVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...WITH HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. A VERY LOW RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
IN THIS SAME AREA.

THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP
WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
229 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ054-062000-
OSAGE OK-
229 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 229 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
GRAINOLA...

LAT...LON 3700 9649 3684 9668 3688 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 216DEG 24KT 3696 9672