Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 6, 2016Osage County, Washington County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Oct 6, 2016, 7:07 AM CDT for Osage County, Washington County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 6, 2016, 7:07 AM CDT (12:07 UTC)
Expired: Oct 6, 2016, 7:45 AM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

Counties Osage County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2179 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 678 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 324 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 341 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.2
Supercell composite: 16.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 6, 6:00 AM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 6:00 AM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
600 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Ongoing thunderstorms near the Kansas border may continue to
impact BVO intermittently through 15Z, with tempo IFR conditions
possible. Confidence not high enough to include any mention of
thunderstorms affecting TUL/RVS this morning, although the chance
is not zero. Morning thunderstorms will diminish with additional
thunderstorms late afternoon and evening as the cold front
approaches. Impacts will be most likely at the NE OK terminals,
with lesser but still mentionable potential for impacts at all
other terminals except FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Current surface analysis indicates low pressure near EKH/SPG with
a warm front arcing across northern OK and then northeast toward
central MO. A retreating dryline extended south of the triple
point across Western OK/TX. Scattered elevated storms have been
going thru the night near and on the northern side of the front
due to increased warm advection with LLJ to its south. There's
enough shear on the southern fringe of the stronger SW flow aloft
and enough instability /surface Td in the 70s/ feeding into the
storms to generate a large hail and damaging wind threat, confined
to the area NW of a Bartlesville to Pawnee line. The surface low
is expected to lift northeast into central KS later today, in
advance of an approaching shortwave trough. Storms should shift
north of the region this morning as the warm front retreats north
as well, leaving our area fairly quiet thru the bulk of the day.
One more hot and humid day /especially for October standards/ is
in store before big changes arrive tonight.

Surface low pressure over KS will lift quickly northeast tonight
along the frontal zone as the aforementioned shortwave trough
shifts east into the central Plains. Surface high pressure
building southeast in the wake of the system will force a cold
front southeast across the region tonight into early Friday, and
will be accompanied by a quasi-linear band of storms by the time
that activity reaches NE OK. Damaging winds and possibly some
large hail will be the main threats thru the evening before the
storms weaken overnight as they progress south and east.

Cooler air behind the front will finally bring more seasonable
temperatures to the region on Friday, with highs forecast to drop
20 degrees or so from today's expected highs. Tranquil weather
will prevail over the weekend with highs climbing back to near
average for this time of year.

A largely uneventful week is expected in the weather department
next week with more of a zonal pattern in place. Temps will climb
above average but will not be near as high as what was seen this
week.

Lacy

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...22

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 6, 4:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-070945-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
435 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE.
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS THIS MORNING...WITH A SMALL BUT NON ZERO POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY...DURING THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...WITH HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. A VERY LOW RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
IN THIS SAME AREA.

THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP
WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 6, 2:42 AM CDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ054-060830-
OSAGE OK-
242 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
330 AM CDT...

AT 242 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF ELGIN TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PEARSONIA TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF KAW LAKE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...                        ELGIN...
GRAINOLA...                       FORAKER...
HULAH...                          PEARSONIA...
BIGHEART...                       WEBB CITY...
WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3689 9600 3675 9605 3677 9682
      3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 230DEG 30KT 3700 9640 3682 9641 3684 9679

Special weather statement, Oct 6, 4:16 AM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ054-055-061000-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
416 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 416 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELGIN TO 4 MILES EAST OF
PEARSONIA TO 4 MILES NORTH OF BURBANK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
DEWEY...                          COPAN...
SHIDLER...                        ELGIN...
GRAINOLA...                       FORAKER...
HULAH...                          PEARSONIA...
BIGHEART...                       EASTERN KAW LAKE...
WEBB CITY...                      APPERSON...
WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3700 9581 3679 9583 3673 9689 3675 9688
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 248DEG 41KT 3697 9624 3679 9637 3676 9675

Special weather statement, Oct 6, 7:07 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
707 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ054-055-061245-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
707 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 706 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELGIN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WYNONA. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BARTLESVILLE...                   PAWHUSKA...
DEWEY...                          FAIRFAX...
COPAN...                          OCHELATA...
ELGIN...                          FORAKER...
HULAH...                          OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...
PEARSONIA...                      OKESA...
BIGHEART...                       TALLANT...
PERSHING...                       WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK...
NELAGONEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3694 9579 3694 9581 3679 9581
      3662 9583 3650 9672 3651 9672 3656 9675
      3700 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 238DEG 42KT 3698 9623 3660 9643

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 6, 1:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	67 min
Oct 6, 2:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	37 min
Oct 6, 2:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	48 min
Oct 6, 4:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	44 min
Oct 6, 4:57 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage	4 hr
Oct 6, 5:41 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	4 hr
Oct 6, 7:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	52 min
Oct 6, 8:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	45 min
Oct 6, 8:17 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	5 days
Oct 6, 8:42 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Washington	3 hr
Oct 6, 10:13 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Washington	3 hr
Oct 6, 2:23 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata	41 hr
Oct 6, 2:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	31 min
Oct 6, 2:35 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Nowata, Pawnee, Washington	13 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.