Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 4, 2016Osage County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Oct 4, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT for Osage County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT (03:15 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2016, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Osage County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1817 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1034 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 235 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 312 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.9
Supercell composite: 14.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 4, 9:38 PM CDT, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 9:38 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
938 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Convection originating across central OK has begun to trend
downward as boundary layer begins to stabilize. However there
remains synoptic level forcing to the west and sufficient deep
layer shear remains in place to support strong to marginally
severe weather as convection continues to spread into NE OK.
Updated forecast will account for short term precip trends with
remainder of forecast on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  90  71  90 /  70  20  30  30
FSM   69  90  70  91 /  30  20  10  10
MLC   71  89  72  89 /  30  20  20  10
BVO   63  88  68  88 /  70  20  40  40
FYV   65  84  68  85 /  50  20  10  10
BYV   66  83  67  85 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   68  90  70  88 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   65  85  69  86 /  60  20  40  30
F10   69  89  72  87 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   70  89  70  89 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 4, 5:14 PM CDT, 5 hours 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING...SLOWLY WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THEY
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THESE INITIAL
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.  MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS ACROSS KANSAS GRADUALLY EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD.  A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL POSE THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 9:21 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

OKZ054-050300-
OSAGE OK-
921 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 920 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KILDARE TO 2 MILES EAST OF MARLAND. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAIRFAX...                        SHIDLER...
BURBANK...                        GRAINOLA...
FORAKER...                        SOUTHERN KAW LAKE...
WEBB CITY...                      APPERSON...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3700 9642 3658 9653 3655 9693 3656 9690
      3657 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9706
      3660 9704 3666 9706 3669 9706 3670 9703
      3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682
      3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 246DEG 48KT 3680 9703 3656 9711

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 10:15 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

OKZ054-059-050400-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1015 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHIDLER TO 7 MILES NORTH OF
MORRISON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       PAWNEE...
FAIRFAX...                        RALSTON...
BURBANK...                        SKEDEE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3651 9703 3651 9701 3652 9701 3653 9698
      3653 9696 3655 9692 3655 9690 3657 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3658 9701 3669 9694
      3671 9624 3632 9671 3631 9693 3633 9693
      3634 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 253DEG 53KT 3673 9663 3640 9705

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 9:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	39 min
Oct 4, 9:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	34 min
Oct 4, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	47 min
Oct 4, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	64 min
Oct 4, 11:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Washington	60 min
Oct 4, 11:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	59 min
Oct 4, 11:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	44 min
Oct 4, 11:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	56 min
Oct 5, 12:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	47 min
Oct 5, 12:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	33 min
Oct 5, 12:50 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	25 min
Oct 5, 12:55 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	35 min
Oct 5, 1:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	34 min
Oct 5, 1:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	32 min
Oct 5, 1:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah	48 min
Oct 5, 2:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh	30 min
Oct 5, 2:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg	48 min
Oct 5, 2:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Muskogee, Sequoyah	45 min
Oct 5, 3:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sequoyah	47 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.