Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
915 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Band of showers/thunderstorms from central OK into
northern TX continues to make steady progress toward
eastern OK this evening. Strongest storms have been
confined to near the Red River and farther south into
TX...and could see some gusty winds develop across far
southeast OK over the next few hours as the MCS propagates
farther east.

Made a few tweaks to PoPs based on current radar trends
but otherwise forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  72  52  74 /  90  10  20  20
FSM   60  75  56  76 /  60  60  20  20
MLC   58  74  53  73 /  80  30  30  30
BVO   51  72  48  75 /  90  10  20  20
FYV   54  71  49  72 /  60  50  20  20
BYV   54  72  51  74 /  40  50  20  20
MKO   57  74  52  74 /  80  30  20  20
MIO   55  72  51  74 /  80  30  20  20
F10   57  72  53  73 /  80  20  20  20
HHW   61  75  57  73 /  80  50  30  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MAINLY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL SEVEREWEATHER THREAT IS LOW...HOWEVER A FEW
CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

OKZ054-055-060-061-066-067-200530-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...WESTERN
ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN
WAGONER AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1139 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPERRY TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PRESTON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          BROKEN ARROW...
OKMULGEE...                       OWASSO...
BIXBY...                          JENKS...
GLENPOOL...                       COWETA...
SKIATOOK...                       CATOOSA...
COLLINSVILLE...                   VERDIGRIS...
SPERRY...                         OOLOGAH...
VERA...                           STONEBLUFF...
TURLEY...                         ONETA...
LIBERTY...                        HECTORVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 217 AND 244.

LAT...LON 3593 9558 3585 9569 3586 9577 3580 9577
      3566 9597 3600 9603 3607 9603 3607 9605
      3631 9609 3659 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 226DEG 28KT 3627 9604 3577 9595