Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tulsa, OK

307 
WWUS54 KTSA 112025
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

OKC127-112033-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160411T2030Z/
PUSHMATAHA OK-
325 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WERE MOVING INTO MCCURTAIN
COUNTY AND OUT OF PUSHMATAHA COUNTY.  THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3448 9518 3449 9505 3424 9505 3425 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 263DEG 42KT 3446 9514 3426 9511 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front has pushed south of Interstate 40 this afternoon with
main surface low moving eastward into north-central Texas. Surface
based instability remains somewhat marginal ahead of front with
around 1000 j/kg across far southeast Oklahoma. The severe weather
threat will continue across this area through the afternoon hours
with the main threat being large hail/damaging winds, including a
limited tornado threat. Greater severe weather threat will likely
remain near/south of the red river where thunderstorm outflows
have not impacted air-mass and where the greatest instability
currently resides.

A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across
far southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas into the evening
hours before precipitation shifts southeast of the region. Cool
start expected Tuesday morning behind front with low temperatures
in the upper 30s across far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.

Another fast moving upper wave will approach the region out of the
desert southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low level moisture
will likely remain limited and only scattered light to moderate
showers will be possible through Wednesday night.

Southerly wind will begin to increase late week into the weekend
ahead of a stronger/slow moving upper level storm system which is
forecast to move into the four corners region by Saturday afternoon.
As upper system continues to shift slowly eastward, shower and
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase from the west especially
early Sunday morning through Sunday night. Although a few timing
differences remain, multiple rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the potential for heavy rainfall, will be
possible during this time period, which could also extend into
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  66  45  65 /  20   0  10  20
FSM   46  67  48  66 /  40  10  10  20
MLC   48  67  50  66 /  30   0  20  30
BVO   38  65  40  70 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   41  61  42  63 /  30   0  10  20
BYV   39  63  41  64 /  20  10  10  20
MKO   42  66  46  66 /  30  10  10  20
MIO   38  63  42  67 /  10   0  10  10
F10   44  67  49  66 /  30  10  20  20
HHW   51  67  49  67 /  50  10  40  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1209 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

|...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
    RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
    ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET... MID AFTERNOON.

    AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING HAVE
PUSHED INTO ARKANSAS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS WELL. WHILE EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED AREAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED BACK TO THE WEST...AND
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL...WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. MOST THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ALSO SAW
AMPLE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
FIRE DANGER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

OKZ049-112045-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
257 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 256 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF SNOW TO 4 MILES WEST OF CLOUDY...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
NASHOBA...                        CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK...
SNOW...                           CLOUDY...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3449 9552 3468 9494 3451 9494 3450 9505
      3428 9505 3420 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 252DEG 41KT 3444 9543 3429 9537