Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Tulsa, OK

782 
WWUS54 KTSA 070128
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
828 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKC113-117-070200-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-161007T0200Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
828 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 828 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAINOLA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PONCA CITY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAIRFAX...                        SHIDLER...
RALSTON...                        BURBANK...
ELGIN...                          GRAINOLA...
FORAKER...                        PEARSONIA...
SOUTHERN KAW LAKE...              WEBB CITY...
APPERSON...                       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9611 3648 9669 3648 9703 3651 9703
      3653 9698 3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704 3668 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 269DEG 44KT 3698 9662 3665 9701 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the valid
period at area TAF sites as a cold front sweeps through eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight. Thunderstorms associated
with this frontal boundary will affect area TAF sites with the
greatest chances occurring at the NE sites. Gusty northerly winds
will be the highlight of the TAFs during the day on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Most recent surface analysis shows sfc low over central KS with
dry line trailing into northwest OK, and strong cold front into
TX/OK panhandle region. In addition, an outflow boundary
resulting from morning storm complex continues to lift north
through far northern OK. This boundary marked by enhanced backing
of low level winds along KS/OK border, and a few severe storms
have developed this afternoon near intersection of cold front and
outflow boundary. These storms will have enhanced severe potential
trough this evening, including a limited tornado threat.

Additional storms are expected to develop along the advancing cold
front and move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening. Swath
of heavy rainfall that occurred north of Pawnee-Nowata line this
morning has left saturated soils in this area. While storms
tonight expected to be progressive in nature, even brief period of
rainfall rates 1-2 inches per hour will be enough to produce
quick-onset flash flooding...thus a flash flood watch has been
issued through tonight. Expect a weakening trend in storms later
tonight as they progress southeast into less favorable
environment, with rain chances tapering sharply toward far
southeast OK and western AR.

Front will usher in a much cooler airmass Friday with low rain
chances lingering in southeastern areas Friday morning. Clearing
skies and lighter winds will lead to the coolest temps so far of
the season by Saturday morning, with many colder spots dipping
into the mid-upper 30s. A period of quiet weather will follow for
several days with temperatures eventually warming back to above
normal levels by the end of next week. A couple of weak impulses
in increasingly zonal flow will likely have little moisture to
work with, thus a dry forecast will be maintained.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for OKZ054>056-059.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...WITH HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.  OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP
WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
229 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ054-062000-
OSAGE OK-
229 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 229 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
GRAINOLA...

LAT...LON 3700 9649 3684 9668 3688 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 216DEG 24KT 3696 9672