Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494

October 6, 201641 counties in Oklahoma; 5 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 6, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT for 41 counties in Oklahoma; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 6, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT (19:31 UTC)
Expired: Oct 7, 2016, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 3 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 46 counties

Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Clay County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 80%

Warnings issued inside it

41 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 6, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Hardeman	51 min
Oct 6, 3:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Grant, Kay	28 min
Oct 6, 3:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Greer, Harmon	30 min
Oct 6, 4:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Harmon, Jackson	48 min
Oct 6, 4:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Hardeman	3 hr
Oct 6, 4:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Greer, Washita	51 min
Oct 6, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson	48 min
Oct 6, 5:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Dewey	45 min
Oct 6, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Alfalfa, Woods	54 min
Oct 6, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Dewey, Major, Woodward	51 min
Oct 6, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Dewey, Roger Mills	39 min
Oct 6, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson, Tillman	46 min
Oct 6, 6:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Alfalfa, Grant, Major, Woods, Woodward	66 min
Oct 6, 6:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson, Tillman	47 min
Oct 6, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Dewey	60 min
Oct 6, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Roger Mills, Washita	40 min
Oct 6, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Foard, Hardeman	46 min
Oct 6, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Custer, Dewey	19 min
Oct 6, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Greer, Harmon, Jackson	39 min
Oct 6, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Dewey, Ellis, Roger Mills	34 min
Oct 6, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Tillman	48 min
Oct 6, 7:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Alfalfa, Garfield, Grant, Major, Woods	50 min
Oct 6, 7:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Hardeman	32 min
Oct 6, 7:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garfield, Grant, Kay, Noble, Payne	59 min
Oct 6, 7:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Dewey, Major	40 min
Oct 6, 7:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Hardeman	3 hr
Oct 6, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Tillman	46 min
Oct 6, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Dewey, Roger Mills	47 min
Oct 6, 8:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	53 min
Oct 6, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Harmon	50 min
Oct 6, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Jefferson, Stephens	47 min
Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Wichita	28 min
Oct 6, 8:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Harmon, Jackson	39 min
Oct 6, 9:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Harmon	3 hr
Oct 6, 9:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Jefferson	49 min
Oct 6, 9:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Lincoln, Logan, Oklahoma	38 min
Oct 6, 9:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Garvin, Jefferson, Love, Murray, Stephens	46 min
Oct 6, 10:27 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Jackson	4 hr
Oct 6, 10:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Clay	51 min
Oct 6, 11:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	48 min
Oct 6, 11:35 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Hardeman	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2179 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 678 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 324 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 341 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.2
Supercell composite: 16.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 5, 11:03 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Canadian, Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan, Noble and 3 more	117 min
Oct 6, 1:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 17 more	2 hr
Oct 6, 6:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 22 more	2 hr
Oct 6, 5:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Coke, Dickens, Fisher, Glasscock, Howard, Kent and 9 more	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.