Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Topeka, KS

359 
WWUS53 KTOP 080235
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
935 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSC003-031-080300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-160708T0300Z/
COFFEY-ANDERSON-
935 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 934 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WAVERLY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9559 3837 9551 3835 9543 3824 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 293DEG 10KT 3831 9555 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

084 
WWUS53 KTOP 080251
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
951 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSC003-031-080300-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-160708T0300Z/
COFFEY-ANDERSON-
951 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3827 9559 3837 9551 3835 9543 3824 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 290DEG 9KT 3831 9555 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Early morning convection brought a swath of rainfall northwest
through southeast across the forecast area, and left an outflow over
eastern Kansas throughout the morning hours. Temperatures now mixing
out and rising into the upper 80s and low 90s.  Dewpoints also slow
to rise, with Concordia at this hour still at 66F while southern
areas increasing into the low 70s.  End result will be a few hours
in our southern and eastern areas with heat indicies in the 100 to
103 range, just shy of criteria for an advisory.  Satellite imagery
and wind fields show boundary over north central Kansas near the NE
border, but lift remains generally weak in this area to tap into
the instability aloft. Storms developing along the front up into
Nebraska and extending into Minnesota, with this cluster expected
to build east and southward with time. Much of our area has a
strong cap in place with 16-18C at 700mb, and with lack of a
strong source of forcing, think areas that have the best chance
for strong storms are far eastern counties on the edge of the cap
and where 850mb winds veer to the SW into the evening hours.
Enough cape, wind and steep lapse rates aloft to make wind the
primary concern with small hail also a possibility. Think that
the boundary farther to the west will have a hard time generating
precipitation, and have lower chances as you go westward into
north central Kansas.

On Friday...Front is forecast to have moved south and west of the
area. Convection is forecast to develop in western Kansas along
the front as a shortwave moves into the state. At this time think
impacts of rain chances will be primarily in our west and south,
given location of the front and some likely reinforcement of its
position from the cold pool from overnight convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Friday Evening through Sunday...Underneath westerly flow aloft,
an embedded impulse is progged to lift north and east from the
southwest CONUS into the central Plains Friday evening into
Saturday. Convergence along the h85 boundary Friday evening in
conjunction with a stout llj up to 30 kts will develop another
round of thunderstorms across portions of central KS. As a
shortwave trough continues eastward during the day Saturday,
thunderstorms remain possible especially along and south of the
Interstate 70 corridor where the boundary remains stationary. With
the potential for cloud cover and precipitation, highs are
generally in the mid to upper 80s. Further west, where better
mixing and lesser cloud cover resides, highs in the lower 90s are
expected. This trend continues into early evening as activity
gradually shifts southeast, creating a quiet evening for the area
with mostly cloudy skies and lows near 70. A warmer and drier
forecast is in store on Sunday as upper ridging builds overhead
while the frontal boundary edges towards Missouri. Highs are
progged in the lower 90s for Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...An amplified trough is expected
to be located across the Western United States at the beginning of
the period. Weak lead waves ejecting from the base of the trough
could lead to thunderstorm development Sunday night and Monday. A
more substantial wave is depicted by both the EC and GFS on
Tuesday, however the bulk of forcing looks to go north of the
outlook area. Have Chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and evening as a
weak surface boundary will setup in the area. This boundary in
conjunction with weak upper level forcing could provide enough
convergence for thunderstorm development. With a strong cap in
place, widespread thunderstorm development is unlikely, but if
development occurs, storms may be severe. Zonal mid-level flow
will become the dominate flow by midweek next week. With weak mid-
level waves traversing the CONUS, will have to maintain at least
slight-chance PoPs for the remainder of the period. Muggy
conditions will continue for the duration of the period as high
temperatures will remain in the low to middle 90s and dewpoints in
the 70s. This combination yields Heat Index values near 100
degrees every afternoon of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Visual inspection and radar imagery suggest TSRA attempting to
develop in TOP-LWC vicinity along area of weak convergence. With
this possibility and concern for additional activity moving in from
the north, have moved up VCTS to 0Z. VFR conditions expected for
the bulk of the forecast, with any TS bringing the restrictions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
321 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MARYSVILLE TO TOPEKA TO OTTAWA HAVE A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
837 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ054-080215-
LYON-
837 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

AT 836 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF OLPE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLPE.

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3835 9635 3837 9608 3817 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 264DEG 16KT 3827 9632

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ054-058-080300-
LYON-COFFEY-
915 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COFFEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NEOSHO RAPIDS AND SOUTH OF WAVERLY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBO...WAVERLY...NEW STRAWN...HARTFORD...
NEOSHO RAPIDS AND JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 144.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3824 9601 3841 9602 3843 9551 3826 9551
      3826 9552 3823 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 263DEG 20KT 3835 9600