Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Topeka, KS

May 25, 2016Dickinson County, Ottawa County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 25, 2016, 6:55 PM CDT for Dickinson County, Ottawa County, Kansas. It was in force for 50 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2016, 6:55 PM CDT (23:55 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2016, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 2.75 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Dickinson County, KS, Ottawa County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 25, 7:10 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Nne Niles, KS
May 25, 7:10 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 N Niles, KS
May 25, 7:25 PM CDT	TORNADO	4 N Solomon, KS	HALF MILE WIDE TORNADO CROSSING SOLOMON ROAD.
May 25, 7:29 PM CDT	TORNADO	3 N Solomon, KS	CAR OVERTURNED AND HOME DAMAGED
May 25, 7:46 PM CDT	TORNADO	3 S Talmage, KS	HOME DESTROYED
May 25, 7:46 PM CDT	TORNADO	5 Nnw Abilene, KS	HOME DESTROYED

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 25, 3:44 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 188 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 289 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

747 
WUUS53 KTOP 252355
SVRTOP
KSC041-143-260045-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0124.160525T2355Z-160526T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 654 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BENNINGTON...
  MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. 

  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
           SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ABILENE...SOLOMON...MANCHESTER...NILES AND TALMAGE. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 273.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3912 9747 3908 9710 3888 9731 3890 9737
      3891 9737 3892 9738 3893 9738 3893 9737
      3896 9737 3896 9755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 285DEG 17KT 3901 9752 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

GDP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 25, 6:26 PM CDT, 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 6:26 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Complicated forecast across the area this evening and tonight. First
the outflow from earlier convection laid out a boundary that made it
just south of Interstate 70 early this afternoon. Latest regional
loop from radar shows the boundary washing out since 1930Z. Latest
objective surface analysis shows a surface low over southwest and
south central Kansas with an inverted trough extending northeast
into central Kansas. Dryline was located from the surface low south
across western Oklahoma. High resolution models continue to show
some differing scenarios with convection firing late this afternoon
near the surface low and diffuse boundary, then moving northeast
toward our southern counties near Abilene around 7 PM then they vary
with the placement of scattered storms through the evening hours.
The low level jet will be veered to the southwest and best lift
associated with it looks to focus across far northeast Kansas into
southern Iowa and western Missouri. MLCAPE varies at 20Z from around
1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg with shear of 25 to 35 kts. With the absence
of any forcing aloft this afternoon will likely need to monitor
boundaries for development late this afternoon and evening. Shear,
instability and moisture will be conducive for some strong to severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. A
tornado or two is also possible over portions of central Kansas
during the late afternoon and evening.

Thursday, The upper trough will move east across the Rockies while
ejecting out waves through the morning into the afternoon hours. If
the convection across northeast Kansas and western Missouri occurs
there would be an outflow boundary across the area for focus later
in the afternoon hours. The surface low will reform across southwest
Kansas with a frontal boundary extending northeast across north
central Kansas and into northeast Nebraska in the afternoon hours.
Latest model runs show shear around 30 to 40 kts by late afternoon
and good instability along with good moisture transport into north
central Kansas. Storms should develop along the frontal boundary and
move northeast across the area in the late afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Challenging forecast in trying to differentiate enhanced
convective chances with discerable shortwaves. How exactly
convection will evolve on Thursday afternoon and evening is
uncertain given the many convective scenarios forecast by the
different short-range models. Depending on whether an MCS develops
Thursday afternoon, expect another surge of strong to severe
convection to affect portions of central and eastern KS during the
evening hours. While low-level shear strengthens during the
evening, 0-6 km shear decreases so messy convective modes are
expected.

After that, there is a decent chance for quiet weather from late
Thursday night until mid Friday afternoon, when an apparent weak
shortwave trough and peak heating may set off additional
thunderstorms over eastern KS. While the shear does not look as
strong, there is enough that organized convection may again occur
with possible severe weather.

More significant shortwave trough and associated surface low then
cross the area late Friday night and early Saturday with more
chances of thunderstorms.

Then a more stagnant flow pattern sets up for later in the
weekend through at least the middle of next week. While winds
aloft and vertical wind shear weaken considerably, decreasing
organized severe thunderstorm chances, slow moving upper troughs
interacting with an environment with little convective inhibition will
produce periods of thunderstorms. Given the expected slow
movement of the storms, and repeated heavy rains in some areas,
areas of flooding are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Another difficult forecast for the terminals even in the near term
period. Models indicate that thunderstorms may move through
northeast Kansas between 00Z-04Z. With lack of confidence in
storm coverage have still opted to only include VCTS during this
time frame. Fog looks possible early morning and have kept
previous forecast for this potential. VFR ceilings are then
forecast through the end of the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Heller

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 9:54 AM CDT, 9 hours 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-261500-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7
PM. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A FEW OF THEM
TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN KANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT
CLAY CENTER AND THE SOLOMON RIVER AT NILES. MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR GLASCO ON THE SOLOMON RIVER AND THE SALT
CREEK AT ADA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CENTERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEK...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A RISK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 25, 6:07 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WSW CULVER              38.97N 97.76W
05/25/2016                   OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 MILES NORTH OF WILLARD

&&

BAERG

Local storm report, May 25, 6:12 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TORNADO          3 S MINNEAPOLIS         39.08N 97.71W
05/25/2016                   OTTAWA             KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ON THE GROUND FOR APPROX 1 MINUTE

&&

BAERG

Local storm report, May 25, 6:27 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             SSE MINNEAPOLIS         39.12N 97.70W
05/25/2016  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

Local storm report, May 25, 6:33 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 S MINNEAPOLIS         39.02N 97.71W
05/25/2016                   OTTAWA             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BAERG

Local storm report, May 25, 6:40 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             4 ESE MINNEAPOLIS       39.09N 97.64W
05/25/2016  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

Local storm report, May 25, 6:45 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             BENNINGTON              39.03N 97.59W
05/25/2016  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 9:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Cloud, Ottawa, Republic	49 min
May 24, 10:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary	37 min
May 24, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ottawa, Republic, Washington	48 min
May 24, 10:38 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TOP	Cloud, Ottawa	3 hr
May 24, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 1 more	50 min
May 24, 11:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Riley, Washington	41 min
May 24, 11:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TOP	Clay, Cloud, Republic, Washington	3 hr
May 24, 11:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley, Wabaunsee	35 min
May 25, 12:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Lyon, Osage, Shawnee	28 min
May 25, 12:19 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Ottawa	8 days
May 25, 12:19 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Ottawa, Saline	6 days
May 25, 12:29 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Cloud	51 hr
May 25, 12:29 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Clay	5 days
May 25, 10:34 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Ottawa, Saline	3 days
May 25, 12:44 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Marshall	20 hr
May 25, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Ottawa	58 min
May 25, 6:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Ottawa	25 min
May 25, 6:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Ottawa	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.