Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
210 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Upper low centered near the ID/WA/OR
border this afternoon will track ENE into NW MT this evening,
emerging east of the Glacier NP region by early Wed morning.
Thunderstorms have initiated over the higher terrain of Western MT
and will track NE in SW flow aloft ahead of the low through this
evening. Upper level jet streaming NE into S-central MT with
cooling aloft from the approaching upper low will lead to large
scale lift and increasing thunderstorm coverage over much of the
forecast area this afternoon, except for far southern portions of
the area near the WY border where the airmass is driest and
furthest removed from the influence of the upper low. Greatest
potential for widespread coverage and more intense convection
continues to be across north-central MT late this afternoon
through early this evening, where low level E/NE winds to the
north of an inverted surface trough have brought dewpoints to near
or above 50F and will provide additional directional wind shear
for potentially severe storms with damaging wind and large hail
being the main threats. Surface trough to the SE and upper low to
the NW shifts east this evening with winds becoming NW at the
surface after the initial convective activity moves through.
Additional energy associated with the upper low will likely
provide another round of showers and weaker thunderstorms late
this evening into the overnight period, particularly across NW
portions of the forecast area. Cooler and drier air surges across
the region WEdnesday as the upper low tracks NE along and north of
the US/Canadian border. Moisture wrapping around the upper low
will mainly impact areas along and north of Hwy- 2 through the
day, ending from west to east Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
gusty west winds will be widespread Wednesday with temperatures
about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages. A NW flow remains
across the region Thursday with rising heights for warmer
conditions with a small chance afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Hoenisch

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...The period begins with an upper
ridge amplifying over the west coast and northwest flow aloft
over the area. Short wave energy embedded within this flow aloft
will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across central
and northern Montana Thursday night and then again Friday
afternoon. The ridge then moves east and ushers in a warm and dry
period, lasting from Friday night through midday Sunday. The
models bring a rather fast moving upper trof across the Pacific
Northwest Sunday afternoon and the divergent southwest flow aloft
out ahead of this feature will help initiate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms along the Rocky Mountain Front which will then move
out onto the plains through Sunday evening. The European model
begins to rebuild the upper ridge over western Montana on Monday
while the GFS is a bit slower in moving the upper trof out of the
area. Have gone with the drier ECMWF for Monday. The flow aloft
becomes more westerly on Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the period but will warm to above average readings from
Sunday through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Upper level low moves across northern ID this afternoon and across
NW MT this evening, emerging east of the continental divide along the
MT/AB border Wednesday morning. SW flow aloft through this afternoon
with increasing thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon through
this evening ahead of an eastward moving cold front associated with
the upper low. NE to east winds at area terminals will persist until
the front passes this evening which will be accompanied by a wind
shift to the W/NW. Some Thunderstorms this evening could produce
large hail and damaging winds, particularly across N-central MT.
Thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity late this
evening but additional moisture circulating around the low will
spread showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms across
northern terminals late tonight into WEdnesday morning. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions in the vicinity of
thunderstorms as well as gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  74  50  79 /  60  30  10  20
CTB  52  68  51  76 /  80  70  20  40
HLN  51  76  52  80 /  50  10  10  20
BZN  46  78  47  80 /  10  10  10  20
WEY  40  68  37  69 /  10   0   0  20
DLN  43  75  45  77 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  56  72  55  78 /  70  30  20  20
LWT  51  75  51  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             28 WSW BYNUM            47.84N 112.87W
08/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       TETON              MT   FOREST SERVICE

            RELAYED FROM BEAR TOP LOOKOUT

&&

JAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
457 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ012-013-049-092345-
CASCADE MT-EASTERN TETON MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
457 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CHOUTEAU...
NORTHWESTERN CASCADE AND SOUTHEASTERN TETON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

AT 457 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FORT  SHAW...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF CASCADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POWER...FORT SHAW...FORT  SHAW...VAUGHN AND SUN RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4739 11171 4749 11192 4787 11159 4771 11124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 211DEG 24KT 4752 11174

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
501 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ012-013-048-049-092345-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MT-CASCADE MT-EASTERN TETON MT-
CHOUTEAU MT-
501 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHOUTEAU...NORTHWESTERN
CASCADE...SOUTHEASTERN TETON AND CENTRAL LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 501 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FAIRFIELD...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHOTEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAIRFIELD...DUTTON...POWER AND SIMMS.

LAT...LON 4740 11202 4755 11218 4795 11186 4773 11140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 224DEG 22KT 4756 11197

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
502 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ009-046-048-049-092345-
EASTERN PONDERA MT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MT-EASTERN TETON MT-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MT-
502 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL TETON AND
SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 502 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHOTEAU...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONRAD...CHOTEAU...BRADY...FARMINGTON AND PENDROY.

LAT...LON 4776 11195 4781 11228 4822 11231 4821 11169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 160DEG 10KT 4787 11213

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ012-100015-
CASCADE MT-
527 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CASCADE AND NORTHWESTERN
MEAGHER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 527 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF CASCADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDEN.

LAT...LON 4744 11144 4723 11105 4700 11147 4700 11153
      4696 11154 4694 11157 4706 11177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 221DEG 21KT 4706 11160

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
534 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ012-013-100015-
CASCADE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
534 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU AND
NORTHWESTERN CASCADE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 534 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF CASCADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREAT FALLS...BLACK EAGLE...TRACY...ULM...
MALMSTROM AFB AND FIRST PEOPLES BUFFALO JUMP STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4719 11152 4733 11175 4774 11133 4752 11097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 221DEG 21KT 4737 11153

KJ