Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Great Falls, MT

101 
WWUS55 KTFX 102133
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
333 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC013-015-045-102145-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160610T2145Z/
CHOUTEAU MT-CASCADE MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-
333 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU...NORTHEASTERN CASCADE AND NORTHWESTERN
JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HIGHWOOD...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF FORT BENTON...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 315PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS
         REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP
         TO PING PONG SIZE.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELT...GERALDINE...SHONKIN...SQUARE BUTTE AND ARMINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4735 11104 4747 11109 4774 11030 4744 11015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 248DEG 47KT 4751 11067 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MARTIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
222 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
Latest analysis shows circulation center and axis of Pacific
upper-level trof has reached the WA/OR coast and is expected to
make somewhat slow but steady progress eastward overnight.
Moist southwest flow aloft along the leading edge of the trof
combined with easterly surface winds bringing low-level moisture
have set the stage for another round of thunderstorms this
aftn/eve across central MT. Most parameters (CAPE, 0-6km wind
shear, lifted index etc.) are well within the range for strong to
severe storms, but will have to break the shallow low-level
inversion that was still evident on the special balloon sounding
we did at midday. We still expect that break to occur, but it may
be later this aftn or early eve. Additional support for severe
weather will come from the arrival of stronger jet stream winds
(100-115 mph) now through this evening. Morning forecast models
did shift the jet's core (115-125mph) to the west side of the
Divide from earlier runs, so jet's contribution in our area may
be reduced, but should be sufficient to help boost some storm
development.

Models continue to indicate slow approach of a surface cold front
from the Pacific system, LCL not making it east of the Rocky Mtn
Front until mid-late evening as cold air push behind it is not
particularly strong.  That may help storms persist a bit longer in
our region as unstable conditions persist ahead of the front. Most
convective activity will dissipate across the central counties by
midnight, but scattered showers and a few storms will linger along
the Hiline through the overnight hours. Southwest flow aloft
continues on Sat as the trof axis moves to the ID Panhandle, so most
locations will see another round of showers and some thunderstorms
Sat aftn.  With less instability behind the front, best chances for
severe storms move to eastern MT tomorrow, and we'll see more of the
short-lived, pulse-type storms with only marginal threat for gusty
outflow winds and small hail.  The trof axis finally reaches our
area on Sun, bringing mostly dry conditions. Forecast on track for
cooler temps through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s on Sat/Sun.
Waranauskas

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A somewhat dry and breezy westerly
flow aloft will move into the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. The resulting downsloping winds will keep North Central
Montana dry through this period, but a disturbance will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over Southwest Montana. A low
pressure center will then move out of the Gulf of Alaska and south
along the Pacific Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. The resulting
moist and unstable southwest flow aloft over Montana will bring a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area during
this time. Temperatures may cool enough to cause minor snow
accumulation above mountain pass level, but significant impacts are
unlikely. A high pressure ridge will then amplify over the central
United States, which will shift the flow a bit farther west and
focus the bulk of the showers/storms more so over Western Montana
for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will not fluctuate much
during the period. Slightly above normal temperatures will fall to
slightly below normal through Wednesday, but they will warm back
above normal by Friday as the high pressure ridge builds into the
area.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1810Z.
A Pacific cold front and upper level disturbance will move through
the region late this afternoon/overnight. Expect widespread
shower/thunderstorms to develop mainly north of I90. Some storms
will produce strong winds/large hail. The storms griddle exit the
Havre region by 10z Saturday. Expect VFR conditions across the
region generally after 12z Sat. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  67  44  71 /  30  30  20  10
CTB  51  65  40  66 /  70  20  10   0
HLN  58  67  47  72 /  30  40  30  10
BZN  53  69  44  71 /  20  40  30  20
WEY  48  61  39  61 /  10  40  30  20
DLN  53  66  43  69 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  55  72  47  72 /  60  40  20   0
LWT  54  67  46  70 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1206 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             8 S HAVRE               48.43N 109.68W
06/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       HILL               MT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED QUARTER TO ABOUT PING PONG SIZE HAIL...NEAR
            BEAVER CREEK PARK.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

BRUSDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTZ012-013-050-102145-
CASCADE MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
303 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU...
NORTHEASTERN CASCADE AND NORTHERN JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT...

AT 303 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BELT...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREAT FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELT...HIGHWOOD...TRACY...SAND COULEE...SHONKIN...STOCKETT...
CENTERVILLE AND ARMINGTON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4731 11121 4744 11129 4778 11040 4747 11019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 248DEG 47KT 4741 11106

MARTIN