River Flood Warning 7, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY. RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
THE GREAT FALLS FORECAST AREA WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S.
HOWEVER, THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS BY
EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR GLACIER PARK. THE DISTURBANCE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO MONTANA FROM SASKATCHEWAN FOR A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THIS WAVE WILL
PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSETTLED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MT. STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDERNEATH A RIGHT-
FRONT JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
OREGON/IDAHO AND BRINGS A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MT. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES AND TIMING
FOR THIS WAVE BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT...REQUIRING A BROADER
SPREAD OF POPS INTO CENTRAL MT THROUGH MONDAY.  OVERALL GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING DRIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION BEGINS TO TURN UPSTREAM TO SIGNS OF A STRONG
CUT-OFF LOW NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KLWT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT KBZN WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE FOG TO CARRY AS A
TEMPO GROUP BY EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR MOVING TOWARDS KBZN
COULD LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT OTHER
TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. PN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA HAS
CAUSED SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE. CLEAR CREEK NEAR
CHINOOK HAS RISEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A NEW FLOOD PRODUCT WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  37  58  34 /  10  10  30  40
CTB  57  35  51  32 /  10  20  40  60
HLN  58  39  67  40 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  54  35  67  38 /  10  10  10  20
WEY  45  30  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  55  35  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
HVR  57  34  52  32 /  10  10  30  50
LWT  49  34  57  33 /  20  10  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS