River Flood Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

402 
WGUS82 KTBW 020244
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the Manatee River At Rye Bridge... 

...The Flood Warning has been extended or continues for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Alafia River At Lithia 
  Alafia River At Riverview 
  Little Manatee River At Wimauma 
  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 
  Peace River At Zolfo Springs 
  Peace River At Arcadia 
  Anclote River At Elfers 
  Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens 
  Myakka River At Myakka River State Park 
  Horse Creek Near Arcadia 

.Tropical rain from Hurricane Hermine brought or will bring flooding 
to many area rivers and creeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC057-021544-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-160907T0300Z/
/LITF1.2.ER.160901T0530Z.160903T0600Z.160906T2100Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 17.3 feet by early Saturday morning. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of State Road 640 
  bridge begin flooding.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 feet on Feb 21 
  1998.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Alafia
 Lithia       13.0  15.6  Thu 10 PM  16.6   17.3   16.7   15.3   13.6


&&


LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218




$$

FLC057-021359-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.160902T0236Z-160902T1359Z/
/RVWF1.1.ER.160901T1951Z.160902T0600Z.160902T0759Z.NR/
1044 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alafia River At Riverview
* From after just midnight through Friday morning.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 3.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 4.2 feet.
* Impact...at 4.2 feet...Water begins to impact homes on Pine Avenue and Park 
  Drive.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 4.5 feet on Jun 6 
  2013.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Alafia
 Riverview     4.2   3.4  Thu 10 PM   3.1    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.1


&&


LAT...LON 2785 8235 2785 8229 2790 8229 2789 8235




$$

FLC057-021544-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-160906T2125Z/
/WIMF1.2.ER.160901T1315Z.160903T0000Z.160906T1525Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet by tomorrow evening. The 
  river is expected to fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.
* Impact...at 14.5 feet...Flooding of several houses begins near 32nd and 33rd 
  streets in Ruskin.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.9 feet on Sep 19 
  1947.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11.0  13.0  Thu 10 PM  15.1   15.9   15.4   14.0   11.4


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

FLC115-021544-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.2.ER.160901T0830Z.160903T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 9.4 feet by Saturday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...at 8.5 feet...Most of Myakka State Park is closed.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.4 feet on Oct 6 
  1957.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7.0   7.8  Thu 10 PM   8.5    9.3    9.3    8.9    8.4


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

FLC101-021544-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0029.160904T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.160904T0900Z.160907T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* From Sunday morning through further notice.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 5.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to rise to 
  near 9.1 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on State Road 
  54.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.1 feet on Mar 20 
  1983.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8.0   5.7  Thu 10 PM   6.2    7.4    8.1    8.6    8.7


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240




$$

FLC081-021544-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160904T1800Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.160901T0430Z.160902T0600Z.160904T1200Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.6 feet by just after midnight. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.6 feet on Dec 28 
  1997.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  13.3  Thu 10 PM  13.6   12.8   11.0    9.2    7.6


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$

FLC081-020314-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-160902T0846Z/
/RYEF1.1.ER.160901T0504Z.160901T1830Z.160902T0032Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Manatee River At Rye Bridge.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 10.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.1 feet on Sep 7 
  2004.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Manatee
 Rye Bridge   11.0  10.6  Thu 10 PM   9.0    6.3    5.3    4.2    3.5


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8235 2750 8242 2754 8242 2751 8233




$$

FLC049-021544-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0031.160902T1715Z-000000T0000Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.160902T1715Z.160903T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Peace River At Zolfo Springs
* From tomorrow early afternoon through further notice.
* At 9 PM Thursday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 18.3 feet by Saturday early afternoon.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.4 feet on Nov 14 
  1997.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Peace
 Zolfo Sprin  16.0  13.7  Thu 09 PM  15.3   18.0   18.2   17.4   16.9


&&


LAT...LON 2762 8176 2735 8179 2735 8187 2762 8184




$$

FLC027-021544-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0032.160904T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.160904T0900Z.160906T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Peace River At Arcadia
* From Sunday morning through further notice.
* At 9 PM Thursday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to rise to 
  near 12.4 feet by Monday evening. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The Girl Scout camp floods.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 feet on Sep 22 
  1934.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Peace
 Arcadia      11.0   8.1  Thu 09 PM   8.9   10.0   11.1   12.1   12.4


&&


LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
 2714 8197 2735 8186                  



$$

FLC027-021544-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.160901T2337Z.160903T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until further notice.
* At 9 PM Thursday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 12.9 feet by early Saturday morning 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is impassable.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.9 feet on Aug 25 
  2003.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Horse Creek
 Arcadia      12.0  12.1  Thu 09 PM  12.5   12.9   12.9   12.6   12.2


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201




$$

FLC101-021544-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0028.160904T1200Z-160905T0600Z/
/ELFF1.1.ER.160904T1200Z.160904T1800Z.160905T0000Z.NO/
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue
  to rise to near 20.1 feet by Sunday early afternoon. The river is expected to 
  fall below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.1 feet on Jul 28 
  1964.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Anclote River
 Elfers       20.0  11.9  Thu 10 PM  15.3   18.6   20.0   19.7   18.5


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

839 
WGUS82 KTBW 021304
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
904 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Florida... 

  Alafia River At Riverview 


.The surge threat no longer poses a threat to the Alafia River At Riverview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC057-021334-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-160902T1359Z/
/RVWF1.2.ER.160901T1951Z.160902T0615Z.160902T1104Z.NR/
904 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Alafia River At Riverview
* Until this morning.
* At 08 AM Friday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 4.2 feet.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    Wed

Alafia
 Riverview     4.2   3.8  Fri 08 AM   2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.2


&&


LAT...LON 2785 8235 2785 8229 2790 8229 2789 8235




$$
DJN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible for all sites
through the next 24 hours as bands of rain and thunderstorms move
across the area. Southeast/south winds this morning will increase
this afternoon, with gusts to 35 knots possible, especially near
thunderstorms.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 406 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016/

..Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch in effect for
Coastal Levy, Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, and Coastal Pasco
counties, and the northern Coastal waters out 60NM...
..Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Inland Levy, Inland
Citrus, Inland Hernando, and Inland Pasco counties...
..Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through Friday Evening...
..Heavy Rains Strong Gusty Winds And Flooding Possible Through
Friday...
..Slight Risk Of Severe Storms And A Few Tornadoes Today...
..High Rip Current risk at the coast from Pinellas to Lee
counties...

SHORT TERM (Today - Friday)...
Tropical Storm Hermine over the south-central Gulf of Mexico early
this morning is forecast to intensify into a Hurricane by tonight
as it moves northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend region
where it is expected to make landfall by early Friday morning. As
Hermine moves northeastward over the adjacent Gulf waters deep
tropical moisture (PW's 2.4+ inches) associated with it will
continue to support high rain chances area wide today as outer
rain bands associated with the storm move across the region.
Strong low level convergence combined with well defined upper
level diffluence will support efficient rainfall production which
will support very heavy rainfall rates and accumulations
especially where training occurs with an increasing threat of
urban and river flooding across the forecast area. Given this will
maintain the Flood Watch from Sarasota north to Levy county
including Sumter county through Friday evening.

In addition to the rain increasing low level wind shear will
support an increasing threat of rotating storms and tornadoes
through early tonight, especially within the outer rain bands on
the northeastern side of Hermine circulation where the low level
shear will be maximized. For additional information on Hermine see
the latest advisories being issued by the National Hurricane
Center.

As Hermine moves into the northeast Gulf later today winds across
central and northern sections of the Nature Coast will begin to
increase with tropical storm force winds possible across coastal
sections of Levy and Citrus counties by later tonight with winds
in the 15 to 20 mph range with higher gusts in squalls expected
across the remainder of West Central FLorida especially over
coastal locations. Rain chances will remain quite high across most
of the forecast area overnight tonight with a continuation of
heavy rainbands and squalls moving over the region.

On Friday Tropical Cyclone Hermine is forecast to accelerate to
the northeast across southeast Georgia during the day. A
trailing surface trough from Hermine combined with lingering deep
layered moisture (PW's in the 2.3-2.5 inch range) will support
another day with high rain chances across the entire forecast area
along with the threat of more flooding rains especially where the
training of showers and storms occur over the same area. Rather
strong southwest winds off the surface in the wake of Hermine will
also support gusty winds with any of the showers and storms as the
convection moves rapidly to the northeast across the forecast area
during the day.

Daytime temperatures today and Friday will remain below normal due
to considerable cloudiness and rain chances with highs in the 80s
while overnight lows will remain above normal through the period
with lows in the mid and upper 70s.

LONG TERM (Friday Night - Wednesday)...
For the start of the long term period, Tropical Storm Hermine will
be located over the Carolinas and will continue moving rapidly to
the northeast. As the storm pulls away from the area, residual
moisture will stick around into the weekend keeping rain chances
elevated. Any additional rainfall on top of what has already fallen
over the past 48 hours will only make for continued flooding
concerns. For the start of next week, TS Hermine will be located
well to the north off the mid-Atlantic coastline allowing for high
pressure to build back into the area. This will allow for a more
typical summertime pattern to set up with an east northeast wind
flow and 40-50 POPS during the afternoon hours. After a couple of
cooler days due to cloudy skies and heavy rains, the temperatures
will warm back up to seasonal averages by Saturday with daytime
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will impact the terminal sites
during the next 24 hours as bands of rain with embedded
thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Hermine move across
the region. Southeast to south winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
early this morning will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 14Z with
gusts up to 35 knots possible after 18Z especially in the vicinity
of tsra.

MARINE...
Tropical Storm Hermine over the south-central Gulf of Mexico early
this morning is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early
tonight as it moves north-northeast toward the Florida Big Bend
region, where it is expected to make landfall by early Friday
morning. As Hermine continues moving north-northeastward wind and
seas over the Gulf waters will continue to increase and build with
deteriorating boating conditions expected to spread from south to
north through tonight and into early Friday. A Tropical Storm
warning and a hurricane watch is in place from Tarpon Springs
north to the Suwannee River out 60nm, with solid Small Craft
Advisories covering the remainder of the central and southern near
and offshore waters as well as the Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
waters and all Mariners are advised to remain in port if possible
today and tonight.

The increasing winds and seas will also support building surf
along area beaches with a high risk of rip currents and a high
surf advisory and high risk of rip current statement will remain
in effect through tonight for all area beaches.

On Friday Tropical Cyclone Hermine will begin to accelerate to the
northeast across southeast Georgia during the day. Southwest
winds and seas will remain elevated over the Gulf waters through
the day with a trailing surface trough and lingering deep layered
moisture supporting numerous showers and storms. Wind and seas
will gradually diminish and subside during the upcoming weekend
and into early next week as weak high pressure from the Atlantic
builds in over the region with a lighter east to southeast wind
flow returning to the waters with an afternoon onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast each afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns expected.

HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine has caused
several rivers across central and southwest Florida to reach flood
stage. The heavy rains will continue through Saturday, therefore
keeping the rivers in flood stage for the next several days. A
more typical summertime pattern will return by mid week next
week allowing for a gradual receding of the flood waters.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  83  78  83  78 /  80  70  70  50
FMY  86  79  87  78 /  70  60  50  30
GIF  84  76  83  76 /  80  60  70  30
SRQ  84  80  85  79 /  80  70  70  40
BKV  83  77  82  75 /  90  70  70  50
SPG  84  79  84  79 /  80  70  70  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Friday evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Sumter.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM
     EDT Friday for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

AVIATION...05/Carlisle

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
526 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-011630-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
526 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
INTO A HURRICANE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS AND SQUALLS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM TAMPA NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST WHERE AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING WILL EXIST AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS MOVE OVER THE REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH 6
TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM SAINT
PETERSBURG NORTH TO CEDAR KEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
TORNADOES ON THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL STORM APPROACHES FLORIDA.
THE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING STORM SURGE THREAT ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE HIGHEST
STORM SURGE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG THE NATURE COAST FROM HOMOSASSA
NORTH TO CEDAR KEY CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE STORM DURING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM SURGE OF 2-3 FEET WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR TAMPA BAY.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO BUILD SEAS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS. THE
BUILDING SURF AND WAVE ACTION ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL SUPPORT A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL
RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND MARINERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG SEVERAL LOCAL AREA RIVERS.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
REMAIN AWARE OF WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AND WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND SQUALLY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
ON FRIDAY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF WHICH WILL
IN TURN PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WITH SEAS
UP TO 10 TO 13 FEET.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG SEVERAL LOCAL AREA RIVERS.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
REMAIN AWARE OF WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

WYNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
828 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW SEMINOLE          27.84N 82.80W
09/01/2016  M10.03 INCH      PINELLAS           FL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS SITE MEASURED 10.03 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN
            THE LAST 24 HOURS AS OF 700 AM.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW SEMINOLE          27.86N 82.83W
09/01/2016  M12.83 INCH      PINELLAS           FL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS SITE REPORTED 12.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN
            THE LAST 24 HOURS AS OF 700 AM.

&&

DNORMAN