Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are expected today outside of any thunderstorms.
Scattered TSRA is expected this afternoon, mainly after 17z across
the southern TAF sites and starting a little later around 21z across
the northern TAF site areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [347 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
CWA remains on the eastern side of an upper level ridge to the west
with a trough along the eastern U.S. coast, resulting in northerly
flow aloft across the CWA. Do expect to see a more active day than
yesterday, both in regards to seabreeze thunderstorms and storms
sinking into the CWA from the north. No clearly defined short waves
in the ECMWF or GFS but the NAM is picking up on a later start with
less seabreeze activity and then a complex sliding in from the
northeast. Still think we'll see the seabreeze activity after 18z,
but then late in the afternoon scattered storms could slip down into
the northern portion of the CWA. SPC has included the majority of
the CWA in a slight risk for today - could see a few strong and
severe storms with the main threat being damaging wind.

Another hot day is in store across the tri-state area with mid to
upper 90s forecast for highs today. While this results in heat
indices in the 104-107 degree range, which is below heat advisory
criteria, it's still a good idea to follow heat safety rules such as
limiting time outside and staying hydrated.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Ridging over the Central CONUS remains in place through Friday
before the pattern begins to break down. In this flow regime, late
day convection tends to filter in from the Carolinas and this is
depicted well in the 21/00z NAM which shows convection from
Thursday continuing across the area until at least 06z Fri.
The NAM is quite aggressive, however, with little support for
such widespread coverage in the other models, so will keep PoPs in
the low chance range for tonight.

On Friday, with the ridge still off to the west, expect a late
start to convection and generally scattered coverage at best.
Expect it to continue to be quite warm, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat indices topping out in the 104-106 degree range
in the afternoon.

By Saturday, ridging across the Central CONUS will begin to weaken
slightly, which should lead to a little better coverage of
afternoon storms across the region, though still below normal for
what would typically be seen in late July.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The first half of the long term period should feature a return to
near normal rain chances through Monday with the absence of the
strong ridge over the Plains. By Tuesday, ridging from the Western
Atlantic spreads westward into NE Florida, which should result in
a decrease in afternoon rain chances and an increase in afternoon
highs back to the upper 90s across inland areas.

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the northern Gulf Coast.
As a result, winds will generally remain 10 knots or less and seas
of 2 feet or less.

.FIRE WEATHER...
With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected over the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
are expected each day. There are no widespread flooding concerns
at this time. However, isolated heavy rainfall will be possible
with slower moving thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  75  97  75  96 /  40  30  40  20  30
Panama City   92  78  92  79  91 /  40  20  40  10  20
Dothan        97  74  96  74  97 /  40  30  30  10  30
Albany        97  74  97  74  98 /  50  20  20  10  20
Valdosta      96  73  96  73  97 /  40  20  30  20  20
Cross City    96  73  96  73  96 /  40  30  40  20  30
Apalachicola  93  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
143 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

GAZ127-146-211830-
WORTH GA-COLQUITT GA-
143 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLQUITT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DOERUN...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF MOULTRIE. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOERUN...MINNESOTA...PRITCHETTS...ANDERSON CITY...NEW ELM...
SIGSBEE...POWELLTOWN...TICKNOR AND MINTON.

LAT...LON 3125 8395 3139 8396 3146 8375 3128 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 251DEG 3KT 3133 8384

11-MOORE