Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A large ridge of high pressure is centered over the southern Plains.
Our area lies under its eastern edge, with mostly northern flow
aloft of our area. This means that any disturbances along the
northern edge of the ridge may get steered southward into our area
this evening. Some of the models are keying in on such a disturbance
making its way into our southeast Alabama counties in the late
afternoon-early evening hours. Otherwise, the main forcing for
storms today is on the smaller scale- the seabreeze front and
outflow boundaries from storms through the day. Moisture is
plentiful as evidenced in our 12Z TAE sounding with a PW of almost 2
inches and the airmass in place is unstable with quick heating today
at the surface, but much cooler air aloft. Storms today may be
capable of producing downbursts of damaging winds and small hail.
The high heat and humidity will also make our highs in the mid-upper
90s this afternoon feel like they're around 104-107. Overnight,
temperatures will fall to the low 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Surface ridging over the Central CONUS begins to retreat eastward
throughout the short term. The main source of convection will be
from the sea breeze with storms likely having scattered coverage.
With a generally weak flow, this will cause a lack of energy
needed to push the sea breeze front inland and so will lead to
convection initiating later in the afternoon and keep the highest
chances for rain in FL. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
decreasing to low to mid 90s closer to the coast.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Well advertised mid level ridge will be draped across the
southern half of the CONUS to begin this period. A break in the
ridge, in the form of an inverted mid level trough, will be moving
westward towards Florida Monday then across the Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday then towards Texas Wednesday. The Euro solution is weaker
and slower with this feature, around 24 hours. The CWA will
experience some added moisture and lift as the feature passes by.

Precipitation chances are on the lower end for Sunday and have
raised chances Monday and Tuesday to account for the mid level
trough passing by and uncertainty in timing between the GFS and
Euro. High temperatures appear to decrease a few decreases at the
beginning of the new work week granted we have more convection and
cloud cover around. Heat indices will be in the low to mid 100s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Numerous small thunderstorms across the area this afternoon are
expected to dissipate around 02Z. Any of these individual storms may
produce downbursts of damaging wind and small hail as well as a
temporary reduction in visibility. The overall outlook, however, is
for VFR conditions to prevail throughout the period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain over the northern Gulf coast. This will
cause light winds of 10 knots or less and seas to be 2 feet or less.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly during
the overnight period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
are expected each day. There are no widespread flooding concerns
at this time. However, stronger and slower moving storms will have
the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall producing ponding
or standing of water in low lying and poorly draining areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  96  75  95  75 /  40  30  20  30  20
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  30  40  10  30  10
Dothan        74  95  74  95  75 /  40  30  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  74  97  75 /  30  20  10  10  20
Valdosta      74  97  73  96  74 /  30  20  20  20  10
Cross City    74  95  73  95  74 /  40  30  30  30  20
Apalachicola  75  91  77  91  78 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Chaney/Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Chaney/Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

FLZ007-009-212215-
HOLMES FL-NORTH WALTON FL-
430 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HOLMES AND NORTHEAST
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF SAMSON...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GENEVA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNION...LIBERTY...PONCE DE LEON...WESTVILLE...ROYALS CROSSROADS...
BARKER STORE...BAKER SETTLEMENT...HICKORY HILL...PLEASANT HILL...
PINEY GROVE...NEW HOPE...PROSPERITY...GRITNEY...MILLER CROSSROADS...
ARRANT SETTLEMENT...GASKIN...CENTER RIDGE...IZAGORA...
GLENDALE AND CLUSTER SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3099 8624 3099 8570 3070 8588 3083 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 287DEG 18KT 3092 8606

42-DVD

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