Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
As of 06Z the cold front was progessing through the western part
of the area and had just moved through Dothan. The back edge of
the rain is moving quicker than it had been the past several
hours. The greatest chance for severe weather will be in the Big
Bend as the showers and thunderstorms move east. Expect the front
to clear the CWA by this afternoon. High temperatures will range
from the upper 60s in southeast Alabama to the upper 70s in the
Big Bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
An upper trough over the eastern CONUS will keep dry northwesterly
flow in place through Monday. The most noticeable difference in
the airmass will be with overnight low, with temperatures in the
mid to upper 40s expected Sunday and Monday mornings. Afternoon
temperatures will reach the upper 60s/lower 70s Sunday and the mid
to upper 70s on Monday

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Mean trough will remain in place over the eastern CONUS through
much of the week, keeping dry northwest flow in place aloft.
Temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the mid to upper
70s and lows in the 50s. A cold front will move across the area on
Thursday, bringing a brief round of showers. Cooler temperatures
are expected behind the front for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] IFR conditions will continue through 14Z as
another round of thunderstorms moves through over the next several
hours. Ceilings will improve to MVFR after sunrise then to VFR by
early afternoon as skies clear behind the front.

&&

.Marine...
A cold front will cross the marine waters this morning with
offshore flow developing in its wake. Marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions this morning will weaken for the afternoon.
However, winds will increase again overnight before diminishing
Sunday morning. Thereafter, generally light winds are expected
through the middle of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
There wil be some patchy areas of RH less than 30 percent on
Sunday but fuel moistures will not be dry enough to meet red flag
conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
Local rivers and streams will be on the rise as a result of the
recent rains. Most area rivers were already high with the
exception of the Suwannee. Flooding is occurring on the
Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, Chipola, and
Choctawhatchee Rivers. Most rivers will continue to rise this
weekend and early next week.

The Flash Flood Watch remains in place for most of the region
through Saturday morning.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  49  73  47  77 /  50   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  53  70  53  71 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  46  69  46  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        70  46  69  45  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  48  71  46  75 /  60   0   0   0   0
Cross City    77  50  75  46  77 /  80   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  52  71  51  72 /  60   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon FOR Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     FLOOD            3 NE TALLAHASSEE        30.47N 84.25W
04/02/2016                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ALONG MERIDIAN RD. AND CLOVERFIELD. MINIVAN
            DROVE INTO WATER AND BECAME DISABLED. NO INJURIES.

&&

CAMP