Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
641 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...Severe storms and flooding possible through early Saturday...

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] Aviators should prepare for a rainy day and
night across the region. Areas of IFR cigs this morning will
improve to MVFR by late morning. TSRA will develop across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle this morning, then spread
eastward through mid afternoon. Another "wave" of rain will affect
all terminals overnight. A few storms could be severe with gusts
to 50 KT and hail.

&&

.Prev Discussion [348 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 9 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
approaching the Mississippi River, with plenty of deep moist
convection ahead of it to our north and northwest. Vapor imagery
and upper air data showed split upper level flow over the CONUS.
The main feature of interest for our region was the positive-tilt
northern stream trough over the Central Plains. This trough will
be slow to translate eastward, and so will the surface cold front.
With ample moisture and large scale ascent today and tonight, it's
not a question of will it rain; it's simply a question of when and
how much. This is the complicated part of this forecast, as
mesoscale features and diabatic temperature changes, which are
often a challenge for numerical guidance, will likely play the
largest role in the details. It's safe to say that beginning
around daybreak, numerous rain bands will begin to develop across
western portions of our forecast area, the spread eastward by
afternoon.

Assessing the timing and extent of the severe thunderstorm threat
is challenging. It is nearly certain that the deep layer shear
will be sufficient for storm organization, and that the 0-1 km
shear will be somewhat supportive of a tornado as well. The tricky
part is forecasting buoyancy. The NWP guidance forecasts unusually
steep mid- tropospheric lapse rates this morning, but then quickly
destroys the EML through latent heating from a large area of deep
moist convection. The models also forecast a sharp increase in
surface- based CIN by afternoon as rain-cooled air helps stabilize
the PBL across much of our forecast area. This could limit the
threat of surface-based storms (and wind damage/tornadogenesis)
later this afternoon. Then there is the question of whether or not
the PBL can destabilize overnight, especially with ongoing rain.
Confidence is therefore low in forecasting the details of the
severe storm threat. For those isolated storms with the strongest
updrafts, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and hail,
though an isolated tornado is also possible.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Front is expected to stretch from near Valdosta to Tallahassee
around sunrise on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be
ongoing ahead of the front, with an isolated strong to severe
storm possible through midday. Highs temperatures will be slightly
cooler on Saturday as the new airmass filters in behind the front.
However, with plenty of spring sun, still expect temperatures to
reach the 70s. Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 40s by
Sunday morning before rebounding into the lower to mid 70s Sunday
afternoon.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Dry and seasonable conditions are expected through the first half
of the work week, with northwesterly flow developing aloft and the
upper trough axis along the eastern seaboard. Expect highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s through
Wednesday. The next front is expected to rapidly cross the area on
Thursday, accompanied by a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

.Marine...
Moderate onshore flow will continue today before becoming offshore
late tonight and Saturday in the wake of a cold front. A period of
Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Saturday night
into early Sunday. Winds and seas will diminish for the beginning
of the work week as high pressure builds over the region.

.Fire Weather...
No concerns.

.Hydrology...
Current conditions across the region show above normal stream
flows in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the
Suwannee. Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee,
Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns will continue through tonight as a cold front
crosses the region. Due to the slow movement of the frontal
system, the potential exists for additional widespread 2 to 4
inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated heavier totals
of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest guidance
suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the Florida
Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would suggest
at least that the most impactful river flooding would be limited
to areas already in flood.

With heavy rain rate possible with the storms today, the Flash
Flood Watch remains in place for most of the region through
Saturday morning.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  67  75  48  74 /  80  80  60   0   0
Panama City   73  64  71  52  70 /  90  80  40   0   0
Dothan        75  58  71  46  71 /  90  90  20   0   0
Albany        76  61  72  45  71 /  90  90  30   0   0
Valdosta      81  67  74  47  73 /  80  70  80   0   0
Cross City    83  70  78  49  76 /  30  40  80  10   0
Apalachicola  75  68  74  51  71 /  70  70  60   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT