Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Tallahassee, FL

363 
WWUS52 KTAE 240527
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1227 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

GAC201-240536-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160224T0615Z/
MILLER GA-
1227 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3168 8434 3144 8423 3131 8435 3127 8475
      3126 8486 3150 8484 3164 8487 3181 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 251DEG 48KT 3171 8462 3155 8462 3136 8473 3120
8490

$$

GAC007-037-061-095-099-243-273-240615-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160224T0615Z/
DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-CALHOUN GA-BAKER GA-TERRELL GA-CLAY GA-
RANDOLPH GA-
1227 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EST
FOR WESTERN DOUGHERTY...NORTHEASTERN EARLY...CALHOUN...NORTHWESTERN
BAKER...SOUTHWESTERN TERRELL...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

AT 1226 AM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SHELLMAN TO MORGAN TO NEAR ARLINGTON TO 9 MILES
WEST OF COLQUITT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWTON...MORGAN...EDISON...ARLINGTON...SHELLMAN...LEARY...WALKER...
DOUGLASVILLE...DAMASCUS...SUTTONS CORNER...PATMOS...BETHANY...
CORDRAYS MILL...MOYE...ROWENA...OAK HILL...PARKSVILLE...TURMAN...
CLARKS MILL AND SHIVERS MILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3168 8434 3144 8423 3131 8435 3127 8475
      3126 8486 3150 8484 3164 8487 3181 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 251DEG 48KT 3171 8462 3155 8462 3136 8473 3120
8490

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

15-HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
704 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...Significant severe weather event expected tonight through
Wednesday morning...

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...Conditions at the terminals will
deteriorate rapidly this evening and overnight at all the
terminals. Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
starting around 06Z to the west and clearing around 12Z to the
east. This is covered well in convective tempo groups with showing
gusts as high as 50kts at all but VLD. It will be windy behind
the front on Wednesday with gusts as high as 35 kts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [510 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A powerful, deep-layer cyclone will move from LA to western TN
overnight dragging a cold front eastward and into the western
portions of our FA by daybreak. The front will be preceded by a
squall line or multiple bands of convection and supercells. A
significant severe weather threat accompanies this system and SPC
has now expanded the moderate risk area from near Albany to
Tallahassee westward with an enhanced and slight risk for severe
covering the remainder of the Tri-state region. The timing of the
severe weather threat remains unchanged beginning in our westernmost
zones between 11 pm and Midnight EST impacting SW GA and the western
Big Bend zones between 4 am and 8 am EST.

The global models continue to show strong forcing for ascent,
impressive shear and helicity values, especially from Albany to
Tallahassee westward. This includes 120 kt mid-upper level jet, low
level jet (85H) 50-60 kt, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s,
deep layer shear (0-6km) around 60 kt, low level shear (0-1km)
exceeding 30 KT, and SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg; highest near the
panhandle coast. This environment would support the development of
supercells with the possibility of significant and long lived
tornadoes. The 09z and 12z CAM shows long track updraft helicity
streaks in the moderate risk area. However, the main threat will
be damaging straight line winds up to 70 mph. Severe hail is also
possible, especially near the coast, due to stronger buoyancy and
relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 6 to 6.5 C/km.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The severe weather threat will be ongoing Wednesday morning as the
focus shifts to our eastern zones. The activity will end by
afternoon as the cold front clears to our east. We are expecting
windy conditions behind the front Wednesday with sustained winds
around 25 to 30 mph with frequent gusts over 40 mph. A wind
advisory will likely be issued after the severe weather threat
ends. High temperatures Wednesday may occur in the morning most
areas with temps remaining steady or slowly falling in the
afternoon. Expect cooler and dryer conditions for Thursday. Min temps
Thursday night may drop to the freezing mark for our northernmost
zones Thursday night.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Throughout the long term, high pressure will dominate the CWA
suppressing rain chances. Until Sunday, the combination of the upper
level trough funneling cooler air to the region and low level high
pressure will keep temperatures fair and cool. Going from Sunday
into Monday, deep level ridging will build and temperatures will
begin to increase into the beginning of the work week.

On Monday, the GFS has a slight chance of a weak frontal boundary
dissipating to the northwest of the area that could potentially
bring rain to SE AL. However, being this far out in the forecast and
the rain only present in one model, will wait for later model runs
to confirm it.

.Marine...

A Gale Warning is in effect from this evening through Wednesday
evening for frequent gusts of 34-40 kt as a strong cold front
pushes through the local waters. The strong onshore winds ahead
of the cold front will drive the tides higher than normal. The
highest tides (coupled with relatively high astronomical tides)
will be in the 3 to 4 feet range at the time of high tide late
tonight and Wednesday, along the coast east of Apalachicola. This
is not quite high enough to warrant a Coastal Flood advisory.
Winds and seas will be slow to subside and may see advisory level
conditions from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

.Fire Weather...

A wetting rain is likely tonight as severe thunderstorms are move
through tonight. Winds will be very gusty behind the front with gust
of 30 to 40 mph possible. Dispersion indices will be high due
Wednesday to high transport winds.

.Hydrology...

Since we expect smaller, rather ragged bands of rain instead of a
large QLCS, our deterministic storm total QPF is a bit lower than
24 hours ago. This lower QPF is also aided by the expected rapid
movement of these rain bands. We expect rain totals from one half
to one inch, with the highest totals north and west of
Tallahassee. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown remains at
minor flood stage, and given the expected rain upstream, it's
likely to stay in minor flood through next week. Otherwise we're
not expected river flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  69  39  62  35 /  80  50   0   0   0
Panama City   60  64  42  60  38 /  90  30   0   0   0
Dothan        57  62  38  60  34 /  90  20   0   0   0
Albany        62  67  38  59  32 /  90  60   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  72  40  62  35 /  60  80   0   0   0
Cross City    65  72  41  63  34 /  40  80   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  67  43  60  38 /  90  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Wednesday FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/CHANEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1148 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E MIDLAND CITY        31.32N 85.45W
02/23/2016  M47.00 MPH       DALE               AL   ASOS

            MEASURED GUST TO 41 KNOTS OR 47 MPH AT THE DOTHAN AIRPORT
            AUTOMATED OBSERVATION.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1156 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTMAN                 30.94N 85.82W
02/23/2016                   HOLMES             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED REPORTS OF TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
            HOLMES COUNTY.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1205 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     HAIL             1 E DE FUNIAK SPRING AI 30.73N 86.14W
02/23/2016  E0.75 INCH       WALTON             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCDERMOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1210 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE MIDLAND CITY      31.26N 85.48W
02/23/2016                   HOUSTON            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWERLINES DOWN ON MURPHY MILL ROAD. ALSO POWER LINES
            DOWN ON WESTGATE AT TECHNOLOGY.

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW DOTHAN            31.24N 85.46W
02/23/2016                   HOUSTON            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE BLOWN INTO THE ROADWAY WEST MAIN AT JOHN D ODOM.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1215 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     TORNADO          KINSEY                  31.30N 85.34W
02/23/2016                   HOUSTON            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            KINSEY FIRE DEPARTMENT CALLED OUT FOR DAMAGE...RELAYED BY
            THE MEDIA. THERE WAS ALSO A DEBRIS SIGNATURE ON EOX RADAR
            AT THE TIME.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1219 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     REHOBETH                31.13N 85.44W
02/23/2016                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES IN THE REHOBETH AREA.

&&

08-LAMERS