Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure remains in place over the northern Gulf coast with an
upper level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. We have plentiful
moisture on tap with satellite PW estimates around 2" over much of
the area and the SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and
SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg across the area. Between seabreeze forcing,
enhanced upper level divergence to our north from the trough, and
the available moisture and instability, we've already seen an active
start to convection this afternoon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours and are
expected dissipate shortly after sunset. Overnight minimum
temperatures will be in the mid 70s, about 80 near the immediate
coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A deep layer ridge will remain in place over our area during
the beginning of the week, with seasonably hot and humid
conditions persisting. While no significant upper level forcing
is expected, PWAT values of 2" or greater are expected throughout
the period, so ample moisture will be present. Combined with sea
breeze forcing and decent instability, this will result in decent
coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and early evening across our area. Precipitation chances will
mainly be in the 30-50% range inland each day, with highs in the
low-mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Along the coast, highs in
the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s are expected.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

No significant differences from the short term are expected
during this period, with the upper level jet remaining well to
our north and a deep ridge prevailing. One minor exception could
be a weak stationary front projected to stretch across the
Carolinas and southwestward into Georgia, which could help
enhance convection across our northeastern areas Thursday and
Friday. Otherwise, high PWAT values and sea breeze forcing will
continue to drive scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and early evening, with mainly isolated showers/storms
possible overnight through the morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Thunderstorms directly affecting terminals may cause gusty,
variable winds and reduction in visibility to IFR levels, but
otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. Winds will be mostly below 10 knots and from the
southwest.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds generally from 5 to 10 knots will prevail through the
next several days, leading to seas around a foot or less each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will remain well above critical thresholds for the next
several days. Therefore, no hazardous fire weather conditions are
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No widespread flooding is anticipated. As usual for this time of
year, isolated areas of minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to slow
moving thunderstorms producing heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  75  94  76 /  10  30  20  40  30
Panama City   80  89  79  89  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dothan        74  91  74  92  74 /  30  50  30  40  10
Albany        75  93  74  93  75 /  30  50  40  30  20
Valdosta      75  93  73  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  30
Cross City    75  93  74  94  75 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  89  78  90  78 /  10  30  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Lahr

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S SHELLMAN            31.69N 84.62W
07/31/2016                   RANDOLPH           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 41 SOUTH. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

EWESTON