Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Thunderstorms directly affecting terminals may cause gusty,
variable winds and a reduction in visibility to IFR levels, but
otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. Winds will be mostly below 10 knots and from the
southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1156 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

High pressure persists over the northern Gulf coast with an upper
level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. The 12Z TAE sounding
showed light southwest flow in the 1000-700 mb layer, 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE, and PW approaching 2". Light southwest flow generally
means about 50-60% chances for showers and thunderstorms across
north Florida and 30-40% chances in southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia. With the plentiful moisture in place and some
enhancement of upper level divergence to our north, however,
chances today will be slightly high than normal- about 40-50% in
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Overall, we expect an
active day for showers and thunderstorms across the area with
highs in the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures peaking in
the 101-106 range again.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A warm and moist atmosphere will be in place across the region
through Tuesday, with typical summertime weather expected.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s will combine with the
seabreeze to generated scattered thunderstorms, with PoPs near
climo for early August.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Typical summertime conditions will prevail through much of the
week as synoptic scale forcing remains minimal, leaving the
seabreeze as the primary driver for afternoon convection. Expect
PoPs near climo through Thursday, with potentially higher coverage
later in the week as the subtropical ridge axis shifts a bit north
and allows for deeper onshore flow into the region. Temperatures
will continue to be warm with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the
mid 70s.

.MARINE...
Light onshore winds will continue through much of the week,
enhanced slightly by the seabreeze near the coast each afternoon.

.FIRE WEATHER...
With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread flooding issues are expected through this period.
With deep layer moisture and slow movement of scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, localized areas
of minor flooding cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  75  94  76 /  10  30  20  40  30
Panama City   80  89  79  89  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dothan        74  91  74  92  74 /  30  50  30  40  10
Albany        75  93  74  93  75 /  30  50  40  30  20
Valdosta      75  93  73  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  30
Cross City    75  93  74  94  75 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  89  78  90  78 /  10  30  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Camp