Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
343 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...Severe Storms Possible Today...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

 As of 06Z an MCS was located over south Mississippi with a bowing
line of thunderstorms out ahead. Expect the leading edge of storms
to arrive around around 09Z. The HRRR has the best handle on the
system and timing has the line reaching the eastern part of the CWA
by early afternoon. So far the system is holding together, but
models show the line weakening as it reaches Tallahassee. The MCS
has produced winds gusts up to 70 mph in south Louisiana,and with
plenty of instability in place, expect the potential for damaging
winds to continue. Highs will range from  the upper 70s in southeast
Alabama to the upper 80s in the Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The upper trough over the Great Plains will merge with a northern
stream trough as it progresses eastward with amplification of the
trough occurring east of the area on Sunday. The mesoscale vortex
associated with this morning's MCS will maintain itself as it tracks
east along a stationary front. It will actually lift the boundary
northward a bit keeping the region in a moist unstable air mass. The
extent of convection this evening will depend on how much the region
is stabilized by the passage of the QLCS this morning. Considering
the speed at which the boundary is moving, we believe that there
will be time to destabilize later today. We therefore maintain
likely PoPs for the evening hours. Shear will remain sufficient to
support some severe storms with damaging winds the primary threat.
The severe threat will linger into early Saturday across our
southeast zones south of a line from roughly Valdosta to
Tallahassee. A cold front will then bring a change in air mass
Saturday night with noticeably less humid conditions expected for
Sunday.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Most of this period will be rain-free with low humidity as high
pressure dominates. Dew points will be down in the 50s into Tuesday
and then gradually increase through the 60s after that. Morning lows
will be in the lower 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the
beginning of the week. Look for upper 60s lows and upper 80s highs
mid to late week. Slight chances for thunderstorms return for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

LIFR conditions are expected at TLH and VLD with MVFR at all other
terminals. Visibility will improve after sunrise. A line of strong
thunderstorms will move through this morning with gusty winds
possible. Expect storms to arrive at ECP by 11Z and spread east,
reaching VLD by 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A squall line of severe thunderstorms is expected to enter the
western waters before sunrise and gradually weaken as is races east
at 40 to 45 knots. After these storms departs, winds will generally
be onshore through tonight and then veer to westerly for Saturday. A
cold front will cross the waters Saturday night swinging winds to
offshore. Light onshore winds will then become reestablished early
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While there is the possibility for heavy rain today, the line of
storms is moving very fast and unless it stalls, flash flooding
should not be problem. Rivers have been running low, so river
flooding is not a concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   84  71  87  67  86 /  70  50  30  20   0
Panama City   79  73  81  69  82 /  60  40  30  10   0
Dothan        80  68  85  62  82 /  80  60  20  10   0
Albany        82  68  85  63  82 /  90  70  30  10   0
Valdosta      84  69  86  65  84 /  70  60  40  20   0
Cross City    87  71  86  68  86 /  40  40  40  20   0
Apalachicola  80  73  83  69  83 /  50  40  30  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Weston