Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 51

March 23, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 23, 2016, 3:03 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 23, 2016, 3:03 PM CDT (20:03 UTC)
Expired
Mar 23, 2016, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 40 counties

Adams County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Doniphan County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO, Cass County, NE, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 23, 6:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMontgomery, Page32 min
Mar 23, 6:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHolt, Nodaway, Worth31 min
Mar 23, 6:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdams, Taylor39 min
Mar 23, 6:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBuchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte24 min
Mar 23, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXClay, Clinton32 min
Mar 23, 8:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCaldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Livingston, Mercer43 min
Mar 23, 8:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Putnam, Schuyler and 1 more38 min
Mar 23, 9:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Chariton, Linn, Livingston27 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-03-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 23 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-03-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 562 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
23 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-826 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
894 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
562 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
648 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

002 
WWUS20 KWNS 232000
SEL1  
SPC WW 232000
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-240300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHERN IOWA
  EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
  NORTHERN MISSOURI
  SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM
  UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-7 PM
CDT ALONG A STALLED FRONT. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN
NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...GRAMS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 23, 1:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Decatur, Fremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page and 3 more2 hr
Mar 23, 6:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Franklin and 6 more2 hr
Mar 23, 12:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Chase, Cheyenne and 19 more6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2016Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2016Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.