Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 252

March 23, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 23, 2016, 1:07 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 23, 2016, 1:07 PM CDT (18:07 UTC)
Expired: Mar 23, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 40 counties

Adams County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Worth County, MO, Cass County, NE, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 51Mar 23, 3:00 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 23 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -826 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 894 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 562 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 648 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

315 
ACUS11 KWNS 231807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231807 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 231807Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING
THE 20-21Z PERIOD.  THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO
A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF
AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD
FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA.  17Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH
AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW.  COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.  A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.  

AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS
NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN
THE CAPPING INVERSION.  ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND
21Z.  STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN
EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY
SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD.  LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39589574 40199639 40279705 40589732 40799712 41179637
            41319488 41109403 40699358 40089340 39589352 39219381
            39319505 39589574

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 23, 3:03 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Clarke, Decatur, Fremont, Lucas, Mills and 6 more	7 hr
Mar 23, 6:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Franklin and 6 more	2 hr
Mar 23, 12:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arthur, Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Chase, Cheyenne and 19 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.