Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 497

October 8, 201611 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 8, 2016, 2:48 PM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 8, 2016, 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC)
Expired: Oct 8, 2016, 10:42 PM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 8, 4:35 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	MHX	Greene, Lenoir, Martin, Pitt	14 hr
Oct 8, 5:22 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning Emergency	MHX	Duplin, Lenoir	6 hr
Oct 8, 5:26 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	MHX	Beaufort, Pamlico	14 hr
Oct 8, 6:27 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	MHX	Dare, Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington	14 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 30 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 206 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 769 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 333 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 435 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

837 
WWUS20 KWNS 081846
SEL7  
SPC WW 081846
NCZ000-CWZ000-090400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 245 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
  EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY
MOVE ASHORE INTO EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSING A
RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 496...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 14045.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 8, 7:00 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brunswick, Carteret, New Hanover	60 min
Oct 8, 7:20 AM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Duplin, Jones and 5 more	8 hr
Oct 8, 2:23 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Duplin, Hyde, Jones and 3 more	97 min
Oct 8, 7:12 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dare, Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2016 Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.