Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 496

October 8, 201611 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 8, 2016, 7:20 AM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 8, 2016, 7:20 AM EDT (11:20 UTC)
Expired
Oct 8, 2016, 3:18 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
5%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
30%

Warnings issued inside it

9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 8, 7:34 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson6 hr
Oct 8, 8:08 AM EDTTornado WarningILMPender12 min
Oct 8, 8:36 AM EDTTornado WarningILMBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Pender, Robeson54 min
Oct 8, 10:00 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson6 hr
Oct 8, 11:17 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXOnslow28 min
Oct 8, 11:18 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMHXCarteret, Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir and 1 more20 hr
Oct 8, 11:43 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXCarteret32 min
Oct 8, 1:50 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin12 min
Oct 8, 2:24 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCarteret36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2016-10-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 373 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2016-10-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
373 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
670 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

586 
WWUS20 KWNS 081117
SEL6  
SPC WW 081117
NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-082000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
  THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 720 AM UNTIL
  400 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...MINI SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND ROTATE
NORTHWESTWARD IN BROKEN BANDS WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE MATTHEW...AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.  THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND WILL BE CONFINED TO
A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 20 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 14045.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 8, 7:00 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrunswick, Carteret, New Hanover60 min
Oct 8, 2:23 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Duplin, Hyde, Jones and 3 more97 min
Oct 8, 2:48 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Hyde and 5 more8 hr
Oct 8, 7:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDare, Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.