Alert archive / Kansas / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 490

October 4, 201629 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 4, 2016, 2:45 PM CDT for 29 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2016, 2:45 PM CDT (19:45 UTC)
Expired
Oct 4, 2016, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 38 counties

Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Marshall County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Reno County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

31 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 3:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Dickinson, Geary, Riley45 min
Oct 4, 3:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTEllsworth, Lincoln49 min
Oct 4, 4:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Washington39 min
Oct 4, 4:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTEllsworth, Lincoln, Saline38 min
Oct 4, 4:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPOttawa49 min
Oct 4, 4:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPWashington43 min
Oct 4, 4:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Riley, Washington27 min
Oct 4, 4:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTEllsworth, Lincoln, Saline23 min
Oct 4, 4:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPOttawa51 min
Oct 4, 5:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Washington22 min
Oct 4, 5:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTEllsworth, Lincoln, Saline64 min
Oct 4, 5:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXSaline38 min
Oct 4, 5:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Cloud, Ottawa52 min
Oct 4, 5:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Dickinson, Ottawa34 min
Oct 4, 5:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTSaline57 min
Oct 4, 5:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Riley, Washington42 min
Oct 4, 5:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXSaline, Seward32 min
Oct 4, 6:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTKingman, Reno, Sedgwick52 min
Oct 4, 6:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDickinson, Ottawa35 min
Oct 4, 6:28 PM CDTTornado WarningTOPClay, Riley, Washington21 min
Oct 4, 6:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTSedgwick39 min
Oct 4, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTHarvey, McPherson, Marion34 min
Oct 4, 7:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTSedgwick, Sumner31 min
Oct 4, 7:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTButler, Harvey, Sedgwick49 min
Oct 4, 7:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTChase, Marion28 min
Oct 4, 7:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTButler, Chase, Greenwood, Harvey, Marion66 min
Oct 4, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMorris35 min
Oct 4, 7:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTButler, Harvey, Sedgwick33 min
Oct 4, 7:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTButler, Sedgwick20 min
Oct 4, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTButler, Chase, Greenwood, Woodson48 min
Oct 4, 8:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTCowley, Sumner55 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 292 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1219 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
292 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

498 
WWUS20 KWNS 041944
SEL0  
SPC WW 041944
KSZ000-NEZ000-050200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  CENTRAL KANSAS
  SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
    TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL KS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS...ALONG WITH A
RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF BEATRICE
NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 1:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson and 26 more84 min
Oct 4, 4:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Clay, Cowley, Dickinson, Geary and 17 more86 min
Oct 4, 6:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Harvey and 12 more115 min
Oct 3, 9:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Brown, Hayes, Lincoln, Logan, McPherson and 1 more30 min
Oct 4, 6:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurt, Colfax, Cuming, Dakota, Dixon, Dodge and 2 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2016Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.