Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 485

September 19, 201610 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 19, 2016, 6:27 PM CDT for 10 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 19, 2016, 6:27 PM CDT (23:27 UTC)
Expired
Sep 19, 2016, 10:31 PM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Caldwell County, MO, Daviess County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Sullivan County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

6 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 6:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXMercer, Putnam23 min
Sep 19, 6:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXMercer, Putnam50 min
Sep 19, 7:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXGrundy, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan39 min
Sep 19, 8:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXDaviess, Grundy, Harrison, Linn, Livingston, Macon and 1 more40 min
Sep 19, 8:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCaldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Livingston48 min
Sep 19, 9:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCaldwell, Clinton, Ray46 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1105 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1105 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-176 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1045 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

793 
WWUS20 KWNS 192323
SEL5  
SPC WW 192323
MOZ000-200500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 625 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL MOVE SWD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE
MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 484...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 01025.


...DIAL

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 5:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison, Mercer, Putnam, Schuyler113 min
Sep 19, 5:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Mercer, Putnam, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan118 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.