Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1721

September 19, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 19, 2016, 5:07 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 19, 2016, 5:07 PM CDT (22:07 UTC)
Expired
Sep 19, 2016, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
113 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 77 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Scott County, IA, Tama County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Carroll County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Harrison County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 117 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1974 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
117 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

992 
ACUS11 KWNS 192208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192207 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-200000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

VALID 192207Z - 200000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
THREATEN PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI...EASTERN IA...AND NORTHERN IL THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.  ONE LINE IS AFFECTING PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN WI AND WILL APPROACH THE MKE AREA WITHIN THE
HOUR.  ANOTHER SHORT LINE OF STORMS IS OVER POWESHIEK/
JASPER/MARION/LUCAS COUNTIES IA.  AND FINALLY...CONVECTION HAS
RE-DEVELOPED WEST OF THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WI
INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IA.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30-35 KNOTS.  

THE STORMS ARE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WILL OCCUR AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR OVER NORTHERN IL.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. 

OVER IA...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS TO THE
EAST OF DSM.  MORE PROMINENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN THESE
STORMS SUGGEST SOME RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/DIAL.. 09/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41819368 43599098 43818743 42748712 42448866 42198936
            40819056 40359270 40299397 40669450 41819368

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 2:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson58 min
Sep 19, 2:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCJo Daviess, Rock Island4 hr
Sep 19, 2:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClayton3 hr
Sep 19, 5:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Davis, Wayne118 min
Sep 19, 6:27 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCaldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Linn, Livingston and 4 more4 hr
Sep 19, 2:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Iowa and 7 more26 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.