Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 484

September 19, 2016Jo Daviess County, Rock Island County, Illinois; 30 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 19, 2016, 2:55 PM CDT for Jo Daviess County, Rock Island County, Illinois; 30 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 19, 2016, 2:55 PM CDT (19:55 UTC)
Expired
Sep 19, 2016, 7:07 PM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 32 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Davis County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Scott County, IA, Tama County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Jo Daviess County, IL, Rock Island County, IL

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 4:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion, Poweshiek40 min
Sep 19, 5:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXLucas, Monroe39 min
Sep 19, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Lucas, Monroe, Wayne48 min
Sep 19, 6:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Wayne40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 117 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1974 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
117 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

922 
WWUS20 KWNS 191953
SEL4  
SPC WW 191953
IAZ000-ILZ000-200300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
  EXTREME NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.  THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME DISCRETE CHARACTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
KNOXVILLE IOWA TO 20 MILES NORTH OF MOLINE ILLINOIS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31025.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 2:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson58 min
Sep 19, 5:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess, Mercer, Rock Island and 4 more113 min
Sep 19, 2:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClayton3 hr
Sep 19, 5:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Davis, Wayne118 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2016Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.