Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489

October 3, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 3, 2016, 1:04 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 3, 2016, 1:04 PM MDT (19:04 UTC)
Expired
Oct 3, 2016, 8:56 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 36 counties

Carter County, MT, Custer County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Arthur County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Garden County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Morrill County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Bennett County, SD, Butte County, SD, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Harding County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Meade County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Todd County, SD, Ziebach County, SD, Crook County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 2:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSBox Butte, Dawes26 min
Oct 3, 3:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRFall River, Oglala Lakota42 min
Oct 3, 3:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFSheridan57 min
Oct 3, 3:38 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFChase, Perkins52 min
Oct 3, 3:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNROglala Lakota31 min
Oct 3, 4:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFKeith, Lincoln, Perkins45 min
Oct 3, 4:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCherry64 min
Oct 3, 4:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon, Jackson, Pennington40 min
Oct 3, 4:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon, Ziebach52 min
Oct 3, 4:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRBennett46 min
Oct 3, 5:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon51 min
Oct 3, 5:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFArthur, Cherry, Grant, Hooker, McPherson, Thomas65 min
Oct 3, 5:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon, Ziebach57 min
Oct 3, 5:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRBennett43 min
Oct 3, 5:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRJackson, Mellette, Todd53 min
Oct 3, 5:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFLincoln46 min
Oct 3, 6:06 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFLincoln, Logan, McPherson39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2016-10-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2016-10-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 97 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-168 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1865 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 12:46 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River59 min
Oct 3, 4:54 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Chase, Cherry, Grant, Hayes, Hooker and 6 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.