Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433

August 4, 20165 counties in Illinois; 32 counties in Iowa; 26 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 4, 2016, 4:44 PM CDT for 5 counties in Illinois; 32 counties in Iowa; 26 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 4, 2016, 4:44 PM CDT (21:44 UTC)
Expired
Aug 4, 2016, 10:55 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 63 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Howard County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Scott County, IA, Tama County, IA, Washington County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Carroll County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Adams County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

26 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 4, 4:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXTama55 min
Aug 4, 5:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXCrawford44 min
Aug 4, 5:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXAdams, Juneau44 min
Aug 4, 5:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia, Marquette, Sauk44 min
Aug 4, 5:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXFranklin, Hamilton, Hardin, Wright40 min
Aug 4, 5:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler47 min
Aug 4, 6:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXAllamakee, Winneshiek66 min
Aug 4, 6:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXIowa, Lafayette44 min
Aug 4, 6:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXClayton, Fayette44 min
Aug 4, 6:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXGrundy, Jasper, Marshall, Poweshiek, Story, Tama68 min
Aug 4, 6:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBuchanan, Delaware52 min
Aug 4, 7:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette56 min
Aug 4, 7:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBenton, Linn60 min
Aug 4, 7:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXTama25 min
Aug 4, 7:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNJo Daviess50 min
Aug 4, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXGrant42 min
Aug 4, 7:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Poweshiek, Tama64 min
Aug 4, 7:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXIowa, Lafayette56 min
Aug 4, 7:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Jefferson, Rock41 min
Aug 4, 8:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNJo Daviess44 min
Aug 4, 8:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNCedar, Clinton, Jackson, Jones56 min
Aug 4, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNCedar, Iowa, Johnson, Muscatine56 min
Aug 4, 8:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXGreen40 min
Aug 4, 8:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNStephenson39 min
Aug 4, 8:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenry, Rock Island, Whiteside62 min
Aug 4, 8:54 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNClinton, Scott36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-08-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 500 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-08-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 10 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
500 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

496 
WWUS20 KWNS 042142
SEL3  
SPC WW 042142
IAZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-050500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN IOWA
  NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
  LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
  CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED MULTICELLS AND MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS OF STORMS
WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MADISON WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...GUYER

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 4, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJo Daviess2 hr
Aug 4, 4:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJo Daviess87 min
Aug 4, 3:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Osceola62 min
Aug 4, 4:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Cass, Fremont, Mills, Montgomery and 2 more3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Iowa, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.