Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 25, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 25, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT (19:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 25, 2016, 9:13 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 57 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 3:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Carroll, Frederick | 44 min |
| Jul 25, 3:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Page, Shenandoah, Warren | 42 min |
| Jul 25, 3:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Frederick, Washington | 43 min |
| Jul 25, 4:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Carroll, Frederick, Washington | 39 min |
| Jul 25, 4:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Carroll, Frederick | 47 min |
| Jul 25, 4:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Clarke, Fauquier, Frederick, Loudoun, Prince William | 48 min |
| Jul 25, 5:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Montgomery | 44 min |
| Jul 25, 5:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Charles, Montgomery, Prince George's | 18 min |
| Jul 25, 7:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean | 44 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 15 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 494 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -150 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1400 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 3:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, Sussex | 115 min |
| Jul 25, 5:02 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 88 min |
| Jul 25, 7:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, Sussex | 84 min |
| Jul 25, 12:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Washington | 64 min |
| Jul 25, 12:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 25, 3:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more | 57 min |
| Jul 25, 4:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.