Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415

July 25, 201617 counties in New Jersey; 26 counties in New York; 57 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 25, 2016, 12:43 PM EDT for 17 counties in New Jersey; 26 counties in New York; 57 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 25, 2016, 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC)
Expired
Jul 25, 2016, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 100 counties

Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Allegany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Elk County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

71 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 25, 1:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus59 min
Jul 25, 1:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSteuben61 min
Jul 25, 1:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPWarren66 min
Jul 25, 1:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPMcKean, Potter67 min
Jul 25, 2:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPWarren39 min
Jul 25, 2:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Steuben62 min
Jul 25, 2:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess46 min
Jul 25, 2:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia43 min
Jul 25, 2:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLuzerne53 min
Jul 25, 2:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford62 min
Jul 25, 2:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCameron, Elk, McKean, Potter64 min
Jul 25, 2:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland, Snyder, Union69 min
Jul 25, 2:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Tioga, Tompkins53 min
Jul 25, 2:55 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMBradford50 min
Jul 25, 2:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Indiana50 min
Jul 25, 3:07 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMBradford, Wyoming38 min
Jul 25, 3:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Washington, Westmoreland38 min
Jul 25, 3:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXWestchester66 min
Jul 25, 3:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Westmoreland37 min
Jul 25, 3:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCameron, Clinton, Elk, Lycoming, Potter, Sullivan and 2 more76 min
Jul 25, 3:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICarbon, Monroe45 min
Jul 25, 3:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Tioga55 min
Jul 25, 3:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Passaic52 min
Jul 25, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Indiana50 min
Jul 25, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSusquehanna, Wyoming42 min
Jul 25, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClearfield, Elk57 min
Jul 25, 3:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill95 min
Jul 25, 3:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Fayette, Washington, Westmoreland49 min
Jul 25, 3:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZIndiana28 min
Jul 25, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware44 min
Jul 25, 3:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Warren53 min
Jul 25, 3:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Franklin56 min
Jul 25, 3:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCambria75 min
Jul 25, 4:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre90 min
Jul 25, 4:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette, Westmoreland58 min
Jul 25, 4:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Wayne, Wyoming42 min
Jul 25, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLuzerne40 min
Jul 25, 4:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette, Washington, Westmoreland38 min
Jul 25, 4:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBronx, Kings, Nassau, Queens33 min
Jul 25, 4:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBlair, Huntingdon61 min
Jul 25, 4:32 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMLackawanna, Pike, Wayne28 min
Jul 25, 4:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Warren56 min
Jul 25, 4:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset38 min
Jul 25, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXUnion32 min
Jul 25, 4:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Mifflin, Snyder, Union72 min
Jul 25, 4:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMPike, Wayne36 min
Jul 25, 4:58 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union3 hr
Jul 25, 4:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXHudson32 min
Jul 25, 5:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette45 min
Jul 25, 5:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHISussex41 min
Jul 25, 5:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Mifflin55 min
Jul 25, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXEssex, Hudson33 min
Jul 25, 5:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset45 min
Jul 25, 5:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Dauphin, Northumberland, Schuylkill60 min
Jul 25, 5:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXEssex, Union26 min
Jul 25, 5:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette56 min
Jul 25, 5:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton56 min
Jul 25, 5:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMorris, Sussex, Warren46 min
Jul 25, 5:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette, Greene50 min
Jul 25, 5:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Passaic30 min
Jul 25, 5:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren48 min
Jul 25, 5:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth47 min
Jul 25, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden44 min
Jul 25, 6:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, Perry69 min
Jul 25, 6:17 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset4 hr
Jul 25, 6:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Passaic43 min
Jul 25, 6:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset40 min
Jul 25, 6:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Ocean62 min
Jul 25, 7:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York68 min
Jul 25, 7:17 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBurlington, Camden4 hr
Jul 25, 7:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Ocean44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-07-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 494 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-07-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 47 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
494 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1400 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
47 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 25, 3:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more57 min
Jul 25, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Salem6 hr
Jul 25, 4:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more83 min
Jul 25, 5:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCape May, Cumberland88 min
Jul 25, 7:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtlantic, Cape May, Cumberland84 min
Jul 25, 10:51 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 21 more114 min
Jul 25, 12:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Berks and 31 more64 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.