Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321

July 4, 201666 counties in Kentucky; 22 counties in Tennessee; 14 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 4, 2016, 12:41 PM CDT for 66 counties in Kentucky; 22 counties in Tennessee; 14 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 4, 2016, 12:41 PM CDT (17:41 UTC)
Expired
Jul 4, 2016, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 102 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Campbell County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Clay County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Houston County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Scott County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wilson County, TN, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 12:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Warren31 min
Jul 4, 12:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson37 min
Jul 4, 12:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Floyd, Johnson, Magoffin33 min
Jul 4, 1:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBarren, Edmonson, Hart, Warren35 min
Jul 4, 1:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson, Warren25 min
Jul 4, 1:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Metcalfe, Warren31 min
Jul 4, 2:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Green, Taylor29 min
Jul 4, 2:27 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKAdair, Taylor18 min
Jul 4, 2:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBoyle, Casey, Marion, Taylor30 min
Jul 4, 2:41 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKAdair, Casey19 min
Jul 4, 2:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXMacon, Smith, Sumner, Trousdale, Wilson33 min
Jul 4, 2:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXBoyd, Lawrence45 min
Jul 4, 2:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKCasey, Lincoln, Russell51 min
Jul 4, 2:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBoyle, Casey, Garrard, Lincoln34 min
Jul 4, 3:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXJackson, Macon, Smith, Wilson37 min
Jul 4, 3:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXClay, Macon, Smith, Sumner, Trousdale34 min
Jul 4, 3:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLPulaski, Rockcastle29 min
Jul 4, 3:16 PM CDTTornado WarningRLXLincoln, Putnam, Wayne29 min
Jul 4, 3:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXClay, Jackson, Macon, Pickett23 min
Jul 4, 3:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGarrard, Lincoln, Madison36 min
Jul 4, 3:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXClay, Jackson, Macon, Pickett35 min
Jul 4, 3:40 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedRLXBoone, Kanawha, Lincoln35 min
Jul 4, 3:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLClay, Estill, Jackson, Laurel, Lee, Owsley and 1 more29 min
Jul 4, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXClay, Jackson, Overton, Putnam28 min
Jul 4, 3:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLLaurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne34 min
Jul 4, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXClay, Fentress, Overton, Pickett59 min
Jul 4, 4:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningRLXBraxton, Calhoun, Clay, Kanawha, Nicholas, Roane3 hr
Jul 4, 4:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKClinton, Cumberland25 min
Jul 4, 4:09 PM CDTTornado WarningRLXKanawha18 min
Jul 4, 4:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Clay, Jackson, Owsley, Perry29 min
Jul 4, 4:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXBraxton, Clay, Fayette, Kanawha, Nicholas36 min
Jul 4, 4:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXScott45 min
Jul 4, 5:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin, Perry34 min
Jul 4, 5:34 PM CDTTornado WarningJKLFloyd26 min
Jul 4, 5:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLFloyd, Pike50 min
Jul 4, 6:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXMcDowell, Mingo58 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-07-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-07-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 90 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
582 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

424 
WWUS20 KWNS 041739 CCA
SEL1  
SPC WW 041739 CCA
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-050100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 321...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

CORRECTED FOR INCLUSION OF TORNADO PROBABLITIES

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  KENTUCKY
  NORTHERN TENNESSEE
  SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
  WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
  900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EXPECTED TO
SPREAD GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN
KENTUCKY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26030.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 7:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Boyle, Butler, Casey, Christian, Edmonson and 17 more53 min
Jul 4, 11:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle, Butler and 42 more54 min
Jul 4, 4:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Breathitt, Clay, Clinton, Floyd, Harlan and 14 more115 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.