Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 97

February 15, 201631 counties in North Carolina; 4 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2016, 5:02 AM EST for 31 counties in North Carolina; 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2016, 5:02 AM EST (10:02 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2016, 11:00 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 35 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Orange County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Wake County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cocke County, TN, Greene County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Unicoi County, TN

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1745 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 272 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 490 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

111 
ACUS11 KWNS 151002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151002 
NCZ000-TNZ000-151600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / WRN AND CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 151002Z - 151600Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND LATER TOWARDS AND
AFTER DAYBREAK FROM THE CHARLOTTE VICINITY TO THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE.
FREEZING-RAIN RATES AT OR ABOVE 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WSW-ENE
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SRN MIDDLE TN MOVING
ENEWD TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  A STRONG WAA
REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD/STRENGTHEN E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING
ATOP A COLD DOME IN PLACE E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE 00Z GSO RAOB
SHOWED A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.  GRADUAL MOISTENING
FROM THE W AND S HAS LIKELY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUAL COLUMNAR
SATURATION/WET BULB COOLING IS EXPECTED.  THERMAL STRATIFICATION OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER ABOVE 0 DEG
C BETWEEN H9-H85 AND ADDITIONAL WARMING AROUND THIS LAYER WILL FAVOR
A TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO SLEET AND
LATER FREEZING RAIN OCCURS OVER NWRN NC.  PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SWATH
OF HIGHER RATES OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

..SMITH.. 02/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36357826 36228307 35488395 35318292 35717803 36357826

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 15, 2:11 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe and 40 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.