Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 103
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2016, 2:11 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2016, 2:11 PM EST (19:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2016, 6:15 PM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 92 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, York County, SC, Carter County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Amelia County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 568 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 55 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 493 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 668 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
618
ACUS11 KWNS 151912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151911
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-152315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN VA/WV...CNTRL/WRN NC...NRN SC
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 151911Z - 152315Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST/EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RATES UP TO 0.05-0.1 INCHES/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AS LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE CURRENTLY NEAR EASTERN TX...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE/EXPAND OVER THE MCD AREA. TO THE EAST...E/SELY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLD-AIR DAMMING AGAINST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF
SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SFC AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. IN TURN...EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH
RATES UP TO 0.05-0.1 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SMALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ATOP THE WARM NOSE.
..PICCA.. 02/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 37167732 35927841 35048000 34928066 34878194 35058277
36338225 37578126 37768048 37597883 37407752 37167732SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 5:02 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell and 25 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 9:52 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Albemarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox and 78 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:46 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albemarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Arlington and 56 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.