Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 942
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 5:54 PM CDT for 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 5:54 PM CDT (22:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Briscoe County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 435 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -306 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2635 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
042
ACUS11 KWNS 152255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152254
TXZ000-160000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152254Z - 160000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MERGING CELLS AND EMBEDDED/MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS.
DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
ONGOING NEAR THE CAPROCK IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE...WITH OTHER STORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE W OVER THE S PLAINS. THE ERN STORMS ARE ON THE W
EDGE OF THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA
70 F E OF THE CAPROCK/ AND STRONG BUOYANCY...WHILE THE WRN
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. THE WRN
STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND SLOWLY EWD THROUGH STORM-SCALE MERGERS AND
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACKS WWD THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 30-35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND/OR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE. SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS
AND PERSISTENCE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SUGGEST THAT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED...BUT WATCH ISSUANCE STILL
APPEARS IMPROBABLE.
..THOMPSON.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34640151 34760116 34810094 34740061 34570058 34320071
34090109 33780152 33550195 33430247 33440268 33660276
33960263 34320224 34530180 34640151SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 9:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Knox | 96 min |
| Jun 15, 2:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Brewster, Cochran, Crane and 24 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.