Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 936

June 15, 20164 counties in New Mexico; 30 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 1:24 PM MDT for 4 counties in New Mexico; 30 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2016, 1:24 PM MDT (19:24 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2016, 4:00 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 34 counties

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Loving County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Terry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1554 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -341 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1738 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

402 
ACUS11 KWNS 151924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151924 
TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX INTO THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151924Z - 152200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE RISK POSSIBLY EVOLVING.  WW
IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CU/CB DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX...WHERE A
HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
OBVIOUSLY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 
STILL...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL SSWLYS AT MID LEVELS MAY
ALLOW A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE...AND WITH THE DEEP MIXED
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF EVAPORATIVELY AUGMENTED DOWNDRAFTS...AN ISOLATED
WIND RISK MAY EVOLVE.

WITH TIME...CAM RUNS SUGGEST SOME CLUMPING/CLUSTERING OF STORMS AS
THEY SPREAD EWD TOWARD A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE S
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGION.  THOUGH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH SWD
AND EWD EXTENT...A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL /IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS/ MAY ALSO EVOLVE.  OVERALL
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SPARSE...PRECLUDING ATTM ANY OBVIOUS NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30650494 31220432 32360444 33340468 33880464 34260362
            34510254 34210206 32750128 31080132 29850160 28900317
            29480456 30650494

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 8:39 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Knox	96 min
Jun 15, 4:54 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Briscoe, Floyd, Hale, Hockley, Lamb, Swisher	66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.