Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 882

June 12, 2016Phillips County, Sedgwick County, Yuma County, Colorado; 17 counties in Nebraska; 6 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 12, 2016, 12:41 PM MDT for Phillips County, Sedgwick County, Yuma County, Colorado; 17 counties in Nebraska; 6 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 12, 2016, 12:41 PM MDT (18:41 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2016, 3:15 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 26 counties

Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Rock County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 447 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -228 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1578 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -87 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

792 
ACUS11 KWNS 121841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121841 
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...WCNTRL NEB...SCNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 121841Z - 122115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE CO INTO SCNTRL SD. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER FAR SE ND
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS SCNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB AND
NE CO. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THIS COMBINED
WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. SHORT-TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH A BAND OF STORMS LINING UP ALONG THE
FRONT FROM NE CO INTO SCNTRL SD. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WITH
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS
SHOULD AIDE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION WITH INTENSIFYING MULTICELLS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39960187 39890251 40290312 40910299 43160073 44279984
            44149872 43549840 43239865 42359937 40410124 39960187

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 12, 2:32 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jackson	118 min
Jun 12, 5:41 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Custer, Elbert and 8 more	2 hr
Jun 11, 7:36 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Corson, Harding, Perkins	84 min
Jun 11, 10:04 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Perkins	116 min
Jun 12, 1:30 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Clark, Codington, Day, Deuel, Grant and 4 more	90 min
Jun 12, 1:50 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clark, Codington, Day, Deuel, Grant, Hamlin and 2 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.