Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 879
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2016, 7:36 PM MDT for 17 counties in Montana; 16 counties in North Dakota; Corson County, Harding County, Perkins County, South Dakota. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 11, 2016, 7:36 PM MDT (01:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 11, 2016, 9:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties
Big Horn County, MT, Carter County, MT, Custer County, MT, Daniels County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Garfield County, MT, McCone County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Valley County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND, Corson County, SD, Harding County, SD, Perkins County, SD
The radar
The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 185 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 727 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -201 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1190 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 71 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 231 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 287 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
056
ACUS11 KWNS 120136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120136
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...FAR NRN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246...247...
VALID 120136Z - 120300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
246...247...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID EVENING.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...SOME WITH
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD/NEWD ACROSS WWS 246/247. THIS
ACTIVITY PRESENTLY RESIDES WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S/
CIRCULATING AROUND THE NRN/WRN SEMICIRCLES OF A SFC LOW ANALYZED
NEAR POWDER RIVER COUNTY MONTANA. SURMOUNTING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH AMPLE DEEP SHEAR
MAINTAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SVR HAIL/WIND
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD. ANY
SUSTAINED RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO...THOUGH NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS
AMIDST A NOCTURNALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD MITIGATE SUCH
POTENTIAL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE
THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION FROM
ROSEBUD COUNTY TO GARFIELD COUNTY. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
MAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN WRN PARTS OF WW 246...SPREADING NWD.
A SWWD-ADVANCING BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN EARLIER KGGW RADAR LOOPS --
REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR -- MAY HAVE A TENDENCY
OF UNDERCUTTING THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...THE SVR
RISK MAY CONTINUE IF A COLD POOL WERE TO ORGANIZE CONCURRENT WITH
THE STRONGER ASCENT.
..COHEN.. 06/12/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46630793 48190771 48670731 48960578 48710273 47190100
45660086 45110215 45100556 44940741 46630793SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 8:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Daniels, Dawson, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt | 94 min |
| Jun 11, 10:04 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Benson, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke and 20 more | 116 min |
| Jun 12, 1:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Dickey, LaMoure, Ransom, Richland and 2 more | 90 min |
| Jun 12, 1:50 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cass, Ransom, Richland, Sargent, Steele, Traill | 7 hr |
| Jun 12, 12:41 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aurora, Brule, Buffalo, Gregory, Lyman, Tripp | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.